On the Benefits of Repaying Francesca Caselli, Matilde Faralli, Paolo Manasse, Ugo Panizza Journal of the European Economic Association, 2026 This paper studies whether a country can benefit from not defaulting on its debts during times of widespread sovereign defaults. We focus on Colombia, which is the only large Latin American country that did not default in the 1980s. Using archival research and formal econometric estimates of Colombia’s probability of default, we show that in the early 1980s, Colombia’s fundamentals were not significantly different from those of the Latin American countries that defaulted on their debts. We then document that the different choice made by Colombia was due to the authorities’ belief that maintaining a good reputation in the international capital market would have substantial payoffs. We discuss how high-level political support from the US allowed Colombia to be particularly creditor-friendly and avoid an International Monetary Fund (IMF) program. Our counterfactual analysis shows that in the short to medium run, Colombia benefited from avoiding an explicit default. We also test whether Colombia’s behavior in the 1980s led to long-lasting reputational benefits. Using an event study based on a large sudden stop, we find no evidence for such gains.
IMF programs and borrowing costs does size matter? Salim Chahine, Ugo Panizza, Guilherme Suedekum European Economic Review, 2025 This paper studies whether IMF programs and their size affect borrowing costs by comparing bonds issued immediately before the onset of the program with bonds issued immediately after the program. We show that, on average, the approval of the program leads to a 72-basis points reduction in borrowing costs and that program size matters. Our point estimates indicate that when program size increases by one percent of GDP, borrowing costs decrease by 23 basis points. We also show that program size mostly matters for ex-post programs (i.e., those implemented during crises). For precautionary ex-ante programs, there is some evidence that program size attenuates the reduction in borrowing costs. However, this effect is small and in most cases IMF programs still lead to a statistically significant reduction in borrowing costs
Do countries default in bad times? The role of alternative detrending techniques Ugo Panizza Economics Letters, 2025 Quantitative models of sovereign debt predict that countries should default during deep recessions. However, empirical research on sovereign debt has found a surprisingly large share of “good times” defaults (i.e., defaults that happen when GDP is above trend). Existing evidence also indicates that, on average, defaults happen when output is close to potential. This paper reassesses the empirical evidence and shows that the detrending technique proposed by Hamilton (2018) yields results that are closer to the predictions of standard quantitative models of sovereign debt.
Foreword Geneva Reports on the World Economy, 2025
Merit-based scholarships for university graduates: A generation of Italian economists Enrico Nano, Ugo Panizza, Martina Viarengo Labour Economics, 2024 We examine the role of financial aid in shaping the formation of human capital. We study the impact of a large merit-based scholarship for graduate studies in affecting individuals’ occupational choices, career trajectories, and labor market outcomes of a generation of Italian economists, with special focus on gender gaps and the role of social mobility. We construct a unique dataset that combines archival sources and includes microdata for the universe of applicants to the scholarship program and follow these individuals over their professional life. We discuss five main results: (i) it is easier to become a high achiever for individuals from households with a lower socio-economic status if they reside in high social mobility provinces; (ii) women are less likely to be shortlisted for a scholarship as they tend to receive lower scores in the most subjective criteria used in the initial screening of candidates; (iii) scholarship winners are much more likely to choose a research career and this effect is larger for women; (iv) women who work in Italian universities tend to have less citations than men who work in Italy. However, the citation gender gap is smaller for candidates who received a scholarship and (iv) women take longer to be promoted to the rank of full professor, even after controlling for academic productivity.
Bank ownership around the world Ugo Panizza Journal of Banking and Finance, 2024 This paper describes a dataset on bank ownership that covers more than 6,500 banks in 181 countries. It documents that until 2010, there was a reduction in state-ownership of banks and an increase in foreign ownership. However, the Global Financial Crisis interrupted or reversed these trends. I show that at the country level, there is no robust relationship between bank ownership and each of GDP growth and financial depth. Bank-level regressions show that state-owned banks are less profitable and have a higher share of non-performing loans than their private (domestic or foreign) counterparts. There is also evidence that state-owned banks stabilize credit in the presence of domestic shocks (more so in the presence of positive shocks). Instead, foreign banks amplify external shocks. In terms of domestic shocks, foreign banks are not significantly different from their domestic private counterparts.
D. Do We Need a Mechanism for Solving Sovereign Debt Crises? A Rule-Based Discussion A Debt Restructuring Mechanism for Sovereigns do We Need A Legal Procedure, 2014
A non-dimensional urban dispersion model and spurious self-correlation estimate Harmo 2010 Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Harmonisation within Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling for Regulatory Purposes, 2010
'Original sin' and monetary cooperation Bárbara Fritz, Metzger, Martina New Issues in Regional Monetary Coordination Understanding North South and South South Arrangements, 2005
Trade Agreements, Exchange Rate Disagreements Eduardo Fernández-Arias, Ugo Panizza, Ernesto Stein Monetary Unions and Hard Pegs Effects on Trade Financial Development and Stability, 2004
Comparing financial returns: National development banks vs commercial banks Y Zou, J Xu, U Panizza Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 103171 , 2026 2026
On the benefits of repaying F Caselli, M Faralli, P Manasse, U Panizza Journal of the European Economic Association 24 (2), 517-566 , 2026 2026 Citations: 12
DP21251 Determinants of Sovereign Bond Issuance in Emerging Markets KL Wong, M Manger, U Panizza CEPR Press , 2026 2026
DP21021 The Elusive Link Between FDI and Economic Growth: Sectoral Heterogeneity and Global Value Chains A Bénétrix, H Pallan, U Panizza CEPR Press , 2026 2026
The Elusive Link Between FDI and Economic Growth: Sectoral Heterogeneity and Global Value Chains BÃ AgustÃn, H Pallan, U Panizza Centre for Economic Policy Research , 2026 2026
The Elusive Link Between FDI and Economic Growth: Sectoral Heterogeneity and Global Value Chains H Pallan, U Panizza CEPR Discussion Papers , 2026 2026
Eurobonds and the European debt trilemma U Panizza Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Department of … , 2026 2026
The catalytic effect of blended finance U Panizza Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Department of … , 2026 2026 Citations: 1
Too much finance redux JLL Arcand, E Berkes, U Panizza Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Department of … , 2026 2026 Citations: 1
An Autopsy of the Voluntary Carbon Market U Panizza, F Tripoli, BW di Mauro 2026
Determinants of sovereign bond issuance in emerging markets KL Wong, MS Manger, U Panizza Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Department of … , 2026 2026 Citations: 1
Public investment quality and sovereign risk A Adarov, U Panizza Journal of International Money and Finance, 103503 , 2025 2025 Citations: 11
DP20747 Africa's Domestic Debt Boom: Evidence from the African Debt Database M Manger, D Mihalyi, U Panizza, N Rescia, C Trebesch, KL Wong CEPR Press , 2025 2025
IMF programs and borrowing costs does size matter? S Chahine, U Panizza, G Suedekum European Economic Review 177, 105070 , 2025 2025 Citations: 7
The economic consequences of the second Trump administration: A preliminary assessment G Gensler, S Johnson, U Panizza, B Weder di Mauro 2025 Citations: 14
Long-term debt sustainability in emerging market economies: a counterfactual analysis U Panizza Review of Development Finance 15 (1), 1-19 , 2025 2025 Citations: 9
Debt Sustainability and Climate Financing in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies U Panizza < bound method Organization. get_name_with_acronym of< Organization: United … , 2025 2025
The Debt Crisis of the 1980s: Law and Political Economy. By Jérôme Sgard. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar Publishing, 2023. Pp. 354. $165.00, hardcover. U Panizza The Journal of Economic History 85 (1), 299-302 , 2025 2025
The sovereign greenium: big promise but small price effect U Panizza, B Weder di Mauro, S Shi, M Gulati Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Department of … , 2025 2025 Citations: 3
Africa's domestic debt boom: Evidence from the African Debt Database MS Manger, D Mihalyi, U Panizza, N Rescia, C Trebesch, KL Wong Kiel Working Paper , 2025 2025 Citations: 2
MOST CITED SCHOLAR PUBLICATIONS
Too much finance? JL Arcand, E Berkes, U Panizza Journal of economic growth 20 (2), 105-148 , 2015 2015 Citations: 3068
Bank ownership and performance. Does politics matter? A Micco, U Panizza, M Yanez Journal of Banking & Finance 31 (1), 219-241 , 2007 2007 Citations: 1349
Public debt and economic growth: is there a causal effect? U Panizza, AF Presbitero Journal of Macroeconomics 41, 21-41 , 2014 2014 Citations: 1170
Currency mismatches, debt intolerance, and the original sin: Why they are not the same and why it matters B Eichengreen, R Hausmann, U Panizza Capital controls and capital flows in emerging economies: Policies … , 2007 2007 Citations: 1075
Why do countries float the way they float? R Hausmann, U Panizza, E Stein Journal of development economics 66 (2), 387-414 , 2001 2001 Citations: 951
The costs of sovereign default E Borensztein, U Panizza IMF Staff Papers 56 (4), 683-741 , 2009 2009 Citations: 837
The economics and law of sovereign debt and default U Panizza, F Sturzenegger, J Zettelmeyer Journal of economic literature 47 (3), 651-698 , 2009 2009 Citations: 831
The pain of original sin B Eichengreen, R Hausmann, U Panizza Other people’s money: Debt denomination and financial instability in … , 2003 2003 Citations: 771
On the determinants of fiscal centralization: Theory and evidence U Panizza Journal of public economics 74 (1), 97-139 , 1999 1999 Citations: 725
Income inequality and economic growth: Evidence from American data U Panizza Journal of economic growth 7 (1), 25-41 , 2002 2002 Citations: 686
Public debt and economic growth in advanced economies: A survey U Panizza, AF Presbitero Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics 149 (2), 175-204 , 2013 2013 Citations: 660
Local Crowding Out in China Y Huang, M Pagano, U Panizza The Journal of Finance , 2020 2020 Citations: 627
Bank ownership and lending behavior A Micco, U Panizza Economics letters 93 (2), 248-254 , 2006 2006 Citations: 557
Domestic and external public debt in developing countries U Panizza United Nations Conference on Trade and Development , 2008 2008 Citations: 447
Original Sin: The Pain, the Mystery, and the Road to Redemption B Eichengreen, R Hausmann, U Panizza 2002 Citations: 425
On the determinants of Original Sin: an empirical investigation R Hausmann, U Panizza Journal of international Money and Finance 22 (7), 957-990 , 2003 2003 Citations: 419
The elusive costs of sovereign defaults E Levy Yeyati, U Panizza Journal of Development Economics 94 (1), 95-105 , 2011 2011 Citations: 400
The mistery of original sin B Eichengreen, R Hausmann, U Panizza Other people's money: debt denomination and financial instability in … , 2005 2005 Citations: 299
The cyclical nature of North–South FDI flows EL Yeyati, U Panizza, E Stein Journal of International Money and Finance 26 (1), 104-130 , 2007 2007 Citations: 295
Structural reforms in Latin America under scrutiny EA Lora, U Panizza 2002 Citations: 293
