PhD in Sustainable Energy Systems - Instituto Superior Técnico
RESEARCH INTERESTS
Power systems economics
Electricity markets
Renewable energy
33
Scopus Publications
469
Scholar Citations
11
Scholar h-index
11
Scholar i10-index
Scopus Publications
Sustainable energy trading and fair benefit allocation in renewable energy communities: A simulation model for Portugal Nuno Rego, Rui Castro, João Lagarto Utilities Policy, 2025 The transition to a decentralized and decarbonized energy system has accelerated the adoption of renewable energy communities (REC), where prosumers share energy locally to enhance self-sufficiency and reduce electricity costs. Conventional models used in REC studies generally assume monetary energy transactions, where those with deficit generation financially compensate members with surplus energy. This study addresses a gap in the literature by proposing a novel energy management model for a Portuguese REC, optimizing socially conscious energy trading without internal monetary compensation. A community of 10 households with photovoltaic generation, with and without battery storage, and a tertiary building (TB) is analyzed over a 25-year investment horizon, incorporating realistic electricity prices, taxes, and the evolution of consumption and generation. The study evaluates three key aspects of REC: technical performance, economic viability, and environmental impact. Results show that prosumers can achieve € 2523 annually from selling surplus electricity to the TB rather than to the grid. A self-sufficiency of 80 % and a reduction in CO2 emissions can be achieved in the REC scenario with the highest battery capacity. Findings reveal that investing in a REC is more profitable than individual self-consumption or non-investment, with potential net present values reaching €14,806 and internal rates of return of 24 %. A fairness index calculation shows that the new benefit allocation model outperforms existing ones in ensuring equity among members. This simulation study provides valuable insights for prosumers and policymakers, demonstrating the economic and environmental advantages of REC in accelerating the clean energy transition. • Proposes a novel equity-based P2P sharing model for renewable energy communities. • Integrates a community battery and tertiary building into REC operation modelling. • Develops a fairness-oriented benefit allocation method. • Achieves 80 % self-sufficiency and 20 % CO2 reduction in a realistic REC case study. • Demonstrates REC investment yields competitive NPV and IRR.
Optimal Investment and Sharing Decisions in Renewable Energy Communities with Multiple Investing Members Inês Carvalho, Jorge Sousa, José Villar, João Lagarto, Carla Viveiros, Filipe Barata Energies, 2025 The Renewable Energy Communities (RECs) and self-consumption frameworks defined in Directive (EU) 2023/2413 and Directive (EU) 2024/1711 are currently being integrated into national regulations across EU member states, adapting legislation to incorporate these new entities. These regulations establish key principles for individual and collective self-consumption, outlining operational rules such as proximity constraints, electricity sharing mechanisms, surplus electricity management, grid tariffs, and various organizational aspects, including asset sizing, licensing, metering, data exchange, and role definitions. This study introduces a model tailored to optimize investment and energy-sharing decisions within RECs, enabling multiple members to invest in solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind generation assets. The model determines the optimal generation capacity each REC member should install for each technology and calculates the energy shared between members in each period, considering site-specific constraints on renewable deployment. A case study with a four-member REC is used to showcase the model’s functionality, with simulation results underscoring the benefits of CSC over ISC.
Optimal Bidding Strategies for Electricity Generation Assets in the Day-Ahead, Intraday, and Balancing Markets Miguel Ferreira, Jorge Sousa, João Lagarto International Conference on the European Energy Market Eem, 2025 This study analyses optimal bidding strategies to maximize the profit of power generation plants in various markets, with a focus on the photovoltaic (PV) power plant. Although other technologies, such as thermal and reversible hydroelectric plants, could have been analyzed, PV stands out due to its rapid growth and contribution to sustainability in the energy transition process. The research uses an optimization model, to support the decision process of the participation of the PV in several electricity markets, namely day-ahead, intraday, secondary and tertiary reserves markets, under price-maker and price-taker assumptions. Simulations were carried out for a 24-hour period using real data from the MIBEL with the pricemaker scenario being the most profitable, presenting higher revenues compared to the price-taker.
The role of storage and flexibility in the energy transition: Substitution effect of resources with application to the Portuguese electricity system Jorge Sousa, João Lagarto, Miguel Fonseca Renewable Energy, 2024 The energy transition, characterized by the decarbonization of energy consumption through electrification, needs a massive integration of non-dispatchable renewable electricity generation, along with storage systems and demand flexibility to manage the variability and uncertainty inherent of these sources. Within this framework, understanding the dynamic interaction among system resources becomes crucial to assess the adequacy of future electricity systems performance. This study aims to evaluate the extent to which new electricity resources will complement or substitute each other in integrating non-dispatchable electricity generation. Using the SWHORD simulator, we investigated the Portuguese power system's for the 2030 horizon, evaluating the coherence of targets outlined in the National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP 2030) while considering interactions among demand-side flexibility and storage options. A significant substitution effect is identified among demand resources, including electric vehicles, hydrogen production, hydro-pumping storage, and battery storage systems. Furthermore, we confirm the consistency of targets set in the Portuguese NECP 2030 and highlight their strong interdependence, particularly concerning renewable and hydrogen targets.
Alternative Price Clearing Mechanisms for the Day-Ahead Electricity Market to Balance Consumers and Producers Outcomes Bruno Diogo, Jorge Sousa, João Lagarto International Conference on the European Energy Market Eem, 2024 The marginal pricing mechanism, used in European day-ahead electricity markets, has faced criticism on multiple fronts. The shortcomings of the current wholesale electricity market pricing mechanism, notably highlighted during the 2022 energy crisis, have impelled discussions regarding alternative market designs. In this regard, the present study proposes two alternative electricity pricing mechanisms based on the weighted average of the maximum accepted offer price for each technology. These alternative mechanisms aim to decrease the cost burden on consumers while safeguarding producers against significant losses that could refrain their incentives for investing in new generation assets. The effectiveness of the proposed mechanisms was evaluated in the Iberian market, revealing potential monthly consumer surplus increase from €78 million to €830 million with the first pricing mechanism, and from €28 million to €102 million with the second pricing mechanism.
The Iberian Mechanism Impact on the Day-Ahead Electricity Prices and on Consumers and Inframarginal Power Producers Welfare João Marianito, Jorge Sousa, João Lagarto International Conference on the European Energy Market Eem, 2024 In response to the escalation in fossil fuel prices triggered primarily by the conflict in Ukraine, the Governments of Portugal and Spain agreed to create an extraordinary and temporary measure known as the Iberian mechanism. This initiative aimed to alleviate the pressure on electricity prices by detaching them from the fluctuations in natural gas prices. This study investigates the impact of the Iberian mechanism on the day-ahead electricity prices, consumers, and inframarginal producers. The analysis reveals that while consumers have obtained benefits from the mechanism, it has posed challenges for inframarginal producers. Moreover, the reduction in prices within the Iberian market has driven an increase in electricity exports from Spain to France.
Impact of the New Electricity Remuneration Scheme on the Waste-to-Energy Recovery Activity in Portugal Mário Silva, João Lagarto, Jorge Sousa, Feliz Mil-Homens, Carla Viveiros, Filipe Barata Energies, 2023 The remuneration scheme for the electricity produced by Waste-to-Energy (WtE) recovery plants has changed recently in Portugal according to 2020 legislation. The new model, linking the electricity remuneration from WtE plants to the spot electricity prices, is expected to bring greater uncertainty in the waste activity, which is a novelty for the sector. In Portugal, Valorsul is the municipal waste treatment entity responsible for the recovery and treatment of municipal solid waste (MSW) produced in 19 municipalities in the Lisbon area. This paper highlights the impact of the new Portuguese electricity remuneration scheme for electricity from waste on Valorsul’s WtE plant. For this purpose, the new remuneration scheme is modeled and simulated based on electricity spot market price scenarios, which are compared with the base case scenario of the former remuneration scheme. Considering different electricity prices for the electricity produced by the WtE plant, the present study anticipates the consequences of the gate-fee of such regulatory changes. Results show that any price changes in the electricity remuneration scheme are offset by equivalent changes in the waste gate-fee. Consequently, the change in the remuneration of the electricity from the WtE plant is, in fact, neutral for the Valorsul accounts and lower revenues from the electricity generation activity of the WtE will negatively impact the gate-fee prices paid by the waste users.
SWHORD simulator: A platform to evaluate energy transition targets in future energy systems with increasing renewable generation, electric vehicles, storage technologies, and hydrogen systems Jorge Sousa, João Lagarto, Ezequiel Carvalho, Ana Martins Energy, 2023 This paper presents the simulation platform SWHORD, specially designed for the analysis of future energy systems under energy transition targets. The model is implemented in GAMS as a cost minimization mixed integer programming problem of a hydro-thermal power system, which includes high penetration of non-dispatchable renewable generation, storage technologies, electric vehicles, and hydrogen systems. Simulations are performed on an hourly basis for one year of operation, enabling the evaluation of both short-term dynamics and the seasonal behaviour of the system and including the hourly power generation profile by technology, fuel and emission costs, CO2 emissions and storage levels, as well as the renewable curtailment needed to balance the system. The model was validated by backtesting with historical data of the Portuguese power system and, from a comprehensive statistical analysis of the dispatchable generation, it is concluded that the simulation results present a good fit with the real data. An illustrative use case is presented to evaluate the consistency of the Portuguese targets for 2030. Simulation results put in evidence the advantages of the SWHORD simulator to study the complex interactions among the new drivers of future energy systems, such as electric vehicles, storage technologies, and hydrogen systems.
Spot price simulation and volatility analysis in the future iberian electricity market 15th Power Systems Computation Conference Pscc 2005, 2005
RECENT SCHOLAR PUBLICATIONS
Sustainable energy trading and fair benefit allocation in renewable energy communities: A simulation model for Portugal N Rego, R Castro, J Lagarto Utilities Policy 96, 101986 , 2025 2025 Citations: 7
OPTIMAL BIDDING STRATEGIES FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION ASSETS IN THE DAY-AHEAD, INTRADAY, AND BALANCING MARKETS J Sousa, M Ferreira, J Lagarto Energy Solutions for a Sustainable and Inclusive Future, 46th IAEE … , 2025 2025
Optimal bidding strategies for electricity generation assets in the Day-Ahead, Intraday, and Balancing Markets M Ferreira, J Sousa, J Lagarto 2025 21st International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 1-10 , 2025 2025
Optimal investment and sharing decisions in renewable energy communities with multiple investing members I Barbosa, JAM Sousa, J Villar, J Lagarto, C Viveiros, F Barata MDPI , 2025 2025
Optimal Investment and Sharing Decisions in Renewable Energy Communities with Multiple Investing Members I Carvalho, J Sousa, J Villar, J Lagarto, C Viveiros, F Barata Energies 18 (8), 1920 , 2025 2025 Citations: 3
Impact of demand flexibility on renewable energy integration, backup capacity, storage use and dispatchable generation: A case study for Portugal's 2030 National Energy plan J Sousa, J Lagarto, F Barata Energy 320, 135270 , 2025 2025 Citations: 17
The role of storage and flexibility in the energy transition: Substitution effect of resources with application to the Portuguese electricity system J Sousa, J Lagarto, M Fonseca Renewable Energy 228, 120694 , 2024 2024 Citations: 21
The Iberian Mechanism Impact on the Day-Ahead Electricity Prices and on Consumers and Inframarginal Power Producers Welfare J Marianito, J Sousa, J Lagarto 2024 20th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 1-6 , 2024 2024
Alternative Price Clearing Mechanisms for the Day-Ahead Electricity Market to Balance Consumers and Producers Outcomes B Diogo, J Sousa, J Lagarto 2024 20th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 1-10 , 2024 2024 Citations: 3
Renewable energy communities optimal design supported by an optimization model for investment in PV/wind capacity and renewable electricity sharing J Sousa, J Lagarto, C Camus, C Viveiros, F Barata, P Silva, R Alegria, ... Energy 283, 128464 , 2023 2023 Citations: 117
Impact of the new electricity remuneration scheme on the waste-to-energy recovery activity in portugal M Silva, J Lagarto, J Sousa, F Mil-Homens, C Viveiros, F Barata Energies 16 (18), 6624 , 2023 2023 Citations: 2
SWHORD simulator: A platform to evaluate energy transition targets in future energy systems with increasing renewable generation, electric vehicles, storage technologies, and … J Sousa, J Lagarto, E Carvalho, A Martins Energy 271, 126977 , 2023 2023 Citations: 19
Short-term load forecasting using time series clustering A Martins, J Lagarto, H Canacsinh, F Reis, MGMS Cardoso Optimization and Engineering 23 (4), 2293-2314 , 2022 2022 Citations: 15
Renewable energy generation, electric vehicles, storage technologies, and hydrogen for mobility–contribution to the 2030 Portuguese energy and climate targets A Lopes, J Sousa, C Camus, J Lagarto 2022 18th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 1-7 , 2022 2022 Citations: 5
Financial performance of the solar PV projects approved under the 2020 Portuguese auction H Marques, J Sousa, C Camus, J Lagarto 2022 18th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 1-6 , 2022 2022
Demand response model for hardware implementation B Capitão, J Lagarto, R Pereira, P Almeida, PM Fonte 2020 International Young Engineers Forum (YEF-ECE), 33-37 , 2020 2020 Citations: 2
Profiling clusters of European electricity markets MGMS Cardoso, A Martins, J Lagarto Program and Book of Abstracts XXVII Meeting of the Portuguese Association … , 2020 2020
Assessing electric vehicle CO2 emissions in the Portuguese power system using a marginal generation approach EF Carvalho, JA Sousa, JH Lagarto International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management 26, 47-66 , 2020 2020 Citations: 16
Electricity market price analysis using time series clustering A Martins, J Lagarto, MGMS Cardoso 2019 16th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 1-6 , 2019 2019 Citations: 4
Combining various dissimilarity measures for clustering electricity market prices MGMS Cardoso, AAAF Martins, J Lagarto Estatística: Desafios Transversais às Ciências com Dados. Atas do XXIV … , 2019 2019 Citations: 8
MOST CITED SCHOLAR PUBLICATIONS
Renewable energy communities optimal design supported by an optimization model for investment in PV/wind capacity and renewable electricity sharing J Sousa, J Lagarto, C Camus, C Viveiros, F Barata, P Silva, R Alegria, ... Energy 283, 128464 , 2023 2023 Citations: 117
Multi-agent electricity markets: Retailer portfolio optimization using Markowitz theory H Algarvio, F Lopes, J Sousa, J Lagarto Electric Power Systems Research 148, 282-294 , 2017 2017 Citations: 81
Market power analysis in the Iberian electricity market using a conjectural variations model J Lagarto, JAM Sousa, Á Martins, P Ferrão Energy 76, 292-305 , 2014 2014 Citations: 39
Price forecasting in the day-ahead Iberian electricity market using a conjectural variations ARIMA model J Lagarto, J De Sousa, A Martins, P Ferrao 2012 9th International Conference on the European Energy Market, 1-7 , 2012 2012 Citations: 34
The role of storage and flexibility in the energy transition: Substitution effect of resources with application to the Portuguese electricity system J Sousa, J Lagarto, M Fonseca Renewable Energy 228, 120694 , 2024 2024 Citations: 21
SWHORD simulator: A platform to evaluate energy transition targets in future energy systems with increasing renewable generation, electric vehicles, storage technologies, and … J Sousa, J Lagarto, E Carvalho, A Martins Energy 271, 126977 , 2023 2023 Citations: 19
Impact of demand flexibility on renewable energy integration, backup capacity, storage use and dispatchable generation: A case study for Portugal's 2030 National Energy plan J Sousa, J Lagarto, F Barata Energy 320, 135270 , 2025 2025 Citations: 17
Assessing electric vehicle CO2 emissions in the Portuguese power system using a marginal generation approach EF Carvalho, JA Sousa, JH Lagarto International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management 26, 47-66 , 2020 2020 Citations: 16
Short-term load forecasting using time series clustering A Martins, J Lagarto, H Canacsinh, F Reis, MGMS Cardoso Optimization and Engineering 23 (4), 2293-2314 , 2022 2022 Citations: 15
Multi-market optimal scheduling of a power generation portfolio with a price-maker pumped-storage hydro unit J Lagarto, F Fernandes, JAM Sousa, J Santana 2016 13th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 1-5 , 2016 2016 Citations: 14
Optimal scheduling of a pumped storage hydro unit in the day-ahead and secondary reserve electricity market J Lagarto, F Fernandes, JAM Sousa, J Santana, B Martins 2015 12th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 1-5 , 2015 2015 Citations: 14
Combining various dissimilarity measures for clustering electricity market prices MGMS Cardoso, AAAF Martins, J Lagarto Estatística: Desafios Transversais às Ciências com Dados. Atas do XXIV … , 2019 2019 Citations: 8
Optimizing the Renewable Generation Mix in the Portuguese Power System based on Temporal and Spatial Diversity JP R. Ferreira, J. Sousa, J. Lagarto, A. Martins 11th International Conference - The European Energy Market , 2014 2014 Citations: 8
Sustainable energy trading and fair benefit allocation in renewable energy communities: A simulation model for Portugal N Rego, R Castro, J Lagarto Utilities Policy 96, 101986 , 2025 2025 Citations: 7
The impact of the Iberian electricity market on the competitive behavior of generating companies using a conjectural variations approach J Lagarto, J de Sousa, Á Martins 2010 7th International Conference on the European Energy Market, 1-9 , 2010 2010 Citations: 7
How market players aadjusted their strategic behaviour taking into account the CO2 emission costs-an application to the spanish electricity market J Sousa, J Lagarto Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on the European Electricity … , 2007 2007 Citations: 7
Power producers trading electricity in both pool and forward markets H Algarvio, F Lopes, JAM Sousa, J Lagarto 2014 25th International Workshop on Database and Expert Systems Applications … , 2014 2014 Citations: 6
Renewable energy generation, electric vehicles, storage technologies, and hydrogen for mobility–contribution to the 2030 Portuguese energy and climate targets A Lopes, J Sousa, C Camus, J Lagarto 2022 18th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 1-7 , 2022 2022 Citations: 5
A trader portfolio optimization of bilateral contracts in electricity retail markets H Algarvio, F Lopes, JAM Sousa, J Lagarto 2014 25th International Workshop on Database and Expert Systems Applications … , 2014 2014 Citations: 5
Electricity market price analysis using time series clustering A Martins, J Lagarto, MGMS Cardoso 2019 16th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 1-6 , 2019 2019 Citations: 4