Multi-scale drought propagation from meteorology to hydrology in the Republic of Moldova: A conceptual early-warning framework in human-modified basins Vera Potopová, Tudor Castraveț, Tudor Trifan Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies, 2026 Study region The Republic of Moldova, a transboundary region in southeastern Europe, integrates large regulated rivers (Dniester, Prut) and small unregulated basins (Cogâlnic, Ialpug, Răut) draining into the Black Sea via Ukraine and Romania. Beyond intensifying water scarcity from climate and anthropogenic pressures, the ongoing war in Ukraine has introduced acute qualitative threats, with military strikes contaminating the Dniester River by oil-based pollutants. Study focus This first comprehensive assessment of multi-scale meteorological-to-hydrological drought propagation across Moldovan basins (1961–2020) integrates lagged correlation and wavelet coherence to quantify propagation dynamics, classify basins into functional typologies, and establish a process-aware early-warning framework. Systematic detection of phase reversals–where hydrological deficits precede meteorological triggers–reveals previously undocumented anthropogenic influences, including reservoir operations and groundwater depletion. New hydrological insights Two distinct propagation regimes emerge: (1) Attenuated-Lag Systems in large regulated catchments (Dniester, Prut) with 2–6 month lags and signal dampening; and (2) Flash-Response Systems in small unregulated basins (Cogâlnic, Ialpug) with near-synchronous responses (<1 month). Phase reversals detected in the Răut basin and downstream Prut sectors signal unsustainable groundwater abstraction undetected by conventional monitoring. These diagnostics are operationalized into a basin-typology-based early-warning framework embedding lag-specific response times into alert protocols, shifting drought monitoring from static observation to dynamic, risk-informed water management–offering a scalable toolset for human-modified basins worldwide.
Implementing regional blue economy research and innovation strategies: a case study for the Black Sea B. Salihoglu, Mustafa Yücel, Pinar Uygurer, Ezgi Şahin Yücel, Evangelos Papathanassiou, D. Tezcan, A. Stanica, I. Stanciu, S. Moncheva, Nina Dzhembekova, Kremena Blagovestova Stefanova, Viktor Komorin, Tudor Castraveț, Kakhaber Bilashvili, Valerian Melikidze, M. Gvilava, Salome Kobaidze Frontiers in Marine Science, 2024 The Black Sea is a vital resource with vast potential to boost the societal value of the Blue Economy for its surrounding countries. Improved knowledge and enhanced infrastructure together with better coordination and alignment of research and innovation efforts are critical for the better management of the deteriorated Black Sea ecosystem to help restore and maintain its resilience and enable sustainable use of natural resources. In 2019, the Black Sea Strategic Research and Innovation Agenda (Black Sea SRIA), was developed by the Black Sea experts, in cooperation with European marine institutes and organizations, with the support of the European Commission. Black Sea SRIA presents the priorities and ecosystem-based management options needed for a healthy, sustainable, and resilient Black Sea. Since 2019, efforts focused on developing concrete actions under the Black Sea SRIA Implementation Plan (IP) to contribute to the national blue economy strategies, better structuring of the relevant funding mechanisms for solution-oriented implementation and the international and regional strategies, supporting the co-funding mechanisms. In this study, we present a transnational process that has led to the development of the IP which utilized a bottom-up, co-design and co-creation-based approach. The SRIA and its IP support better governance of the blue economy principles towards sustainable development and conservation of unique Black Sea ecosystems. The Black Sea SRIA and IP address the fundamental research challenges of the region, promote the blue economy, and also build vital support systems and innovative research infrastructure and capacity together with academia, funding organizations, industry, policy, civil society and local communities. The IP is a long-lasting guide to catalyze new ideas and innovations towards and with the Black Sea community with strong implications for other sea basins.
Statistical modelling of drought-related yield losses using soil moisture-vegetation remote sensing and multiscalar indices in the south-eastern Europe Vera Potopová, Miroslav Trnka, Pavel Hamouz, Josef Soukup, Tudor Castraveț Agricultural Water Management, 2020 Meteorological and agricultural information coupled with remote sensing observations has been used to assess the effectiveness of satellite-derived indices in yield estimations. The estimate yield models generated by both the regression (MLR) and Bayesian network (BBN) algorithms and their levels of predictive skill were assessed. The enhanced vegetation index (EVI2), soil water index (SWI), standardized precipitation evaporation index (SPEI) have been considered predictors for three rainfed crops (maize, sunflower and grapevine) grown in 37 districts in the Republic of Moldova (RM). We used the weekly EVI2, which was collected by MODIS instruments aboard the Terra satellite with a 250m × 250m spatial resolution and aggregated for each district during the 2000–2018 period. We also used the weekly SWI, which was collected from the ASCAT instruments with a 12 km x 12 km spatial resolution and aggregated for each district at the topsoil (0–40 cm; SWI-12) and the root-zone layer (0–100 cm; SWI-14) during 2000–2018. The multiscalar SPEI during 1951–2018 farming years proved to be a significant addition to the remote sensing indices and led to the development of a model that improved the yield assessment. The study also summarized (i) the optimal time window of satellite-derived SWIi and EVI2i for yield estimation, and (ii) the capability of remotely sensed indices for representing the spatio–temporal variations of agricultural droughts. We developed statistical soil-vegetation-atmosphere models to explore drought-related yield losses. The skill scores of the sunflower MLR and BBN models were higher than those for the maize and grape models and were able to estimate yields with reasonable accuracy and predictive power. The accurate estimation of maize, sunflower and grapevine yields was observed two months before the harvest (RMSE of ∼1.2 tha-1). Despite the fact that summer crops (maize, sunflower) are able to develop a root system that uses the entire root zone depth, however, the SWI-12 had the stronger correlation with crop yield, then SWI-14. This explains much better the fit between yields of the crops and SWI-12, which represents soil moisture anomaly in the key rooting layer of soil. In any case, all summer crops showed negative correlations with each of the remote sensing soil moisture indices in the early and middle of the growing season, with SWI-12 performing better than SWI-14. Based on the crop-specific soil moisture model, we found that topsoil moisture declines in the most drought-susceptible crop growth stages, which indicates that RM is a good candidate for studying drought persists as main driver of rainfed yield losses in the south-eastern Europe.
RECENT SCHOLAR PUBLICATIONS
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Blueing the Black Sea: Turning the Tide of Pollution. Volume 2: Summary of Country Marine Pollution Diagnostics W Bank https://hdl.handle.net/10986/43499 , 2025 2025
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Atlasul Districtului Hidrografic Dunăre, Prut și Marea Neagră în Republica Moldova T Castraveț, V Dilan, L Căpățînă 2023
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Statistical modelling of drought-related yield losses using soil moisture-vegetation remote sensing and multiscalar indices in the south-eastern Europe V Potopova, M Trnka, P Hamouz, J Soukup, T Castraveț Agricultural Water Management 236, 106168 , 2020 2020 Citations: 79
MOST CITED SCHOLAR PUBLICATIONS
Statistical modelling of drought-related yield losses using soil moisture-vegetation remote sensing and multiscalar indices in the south-eastern Europe V Potopova, M Trnka, P Hamouz, J Soukup, T Castraveț Agricultural Water Management 236, 106168 , 2020 2020 Citations: 79
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Contributions to spatial landslide assessments in the Bâc tableland N Boboc, I Bejan, T Castraveț, I Jechiu, V Muntean, M Ercanoglu, ... GEOREVIEW: Scientific Annals of Stefan cel Mare University of Suceava … , 2009 2009 Citations: 13
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Metode de analiză a peisajelor din Câmpia Prutului Mijlociu N Boboc, I Bejan, T Castraveţ, V Munteanu, P Ţîţu Buletinul Academiei de Ştiinţe a Moldovei. Ştiinţele vieţii 317 (2), 167-177 , 2012 2012 Citations: 2
Middle Prut plain's erosion susceptibility evaluation T Castraveț GEOREVIEW: Scientific Annals of Stefan cel Mare University of Suceava … , 2011 2011 Citations: 2
Ghid de bune practici pentru investigații asupra mediului cu elevii din învățământul preuniversitar și educație ecologică N VOLONTIR, I CODREANU, T CASTRAVEȚ, A PUȚUNTICĂ, I JECHIU, ... Universitatea Pedagogică de Stat" Ion Creangă" , 2023 2023 Citations: 1
Climate box as a tool for environmental education E Culighin, T Castraveţ, A Velicinschi Ecological and environmental chemistry, 196-197 , 2022 2022 Citations: 1
Aspecte ale regionării micro-și mezoclimatice a teritoriului Republicii Moldova T Castraveţ, V Dilan, L Căpatină Mediul şi dezvoltarea durabilă,, 109-114 , 2018 2018 Citations: 1
