hydrology, water resources, regulation of river flow
8
Scopus Publications
Scopus Publications
Assessment of Future Water Stress on Surface Waters in the West Kazakhstan Region Caused by the Combined Impacts of Climate Change and Increased Anthropogenic Pressure Aisulu Tursunova, Assel Saparova, Kairat Kulebayev, Gaukhar Baspakova, Aliya Nurbatsina, Akhan Myrzakhmetov, Aydana Bazarbek, Fredrik Huthoff Sustainability Switzerland, 2025 The surface water resources of the West Kazakhstan Region (WKR) face escalating vulnerability due to the synergistic effects of a sharply continental climate, which intensifies climate change impacts, and rapidly increasing anthropogenic water demand. This study aims to quantify and project the future water stress on WKR’s surface waters, assessing the combined influence of climate change and socio-economic development over the critical period of 2030–2050. This study presents a comprehensive quantitative assessment and future projection of water stress on the region’s surface waters, integrating state-of-the-art CMIP6 climate scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) with a novel model of water consumption growth accounting for regional demographic and economic developments. Employing advanced bias-corrected ensemble climate projections alongside physically interpretable water balance models, we estimate changes in river flows and lake volumes through mid-century. A newly developed Water Stress Index (WSI), supplemented by the Falkenmark Index, reveals an alarming increase in water stress, with projections indicating that over 70% of the WKR territory may face severe resource limitations by 2050. The analysis underscores significant spatial heterogeneity driven by climatic variability and socio-economic factors, emphasizing the urgent need for regionally tailored adaptation and water management strategies. These findings provide a robust scientific basis to guide policy decisions aimed at mitigating future water scarcity under evolving climate and development scenarios.
Long-Term Water Level Projections for Lake Balkhash Using Scenario-Based Water Balance Modeling Under Climate and Socioeconomic Uncertainties Sayat Alimkulov, Lyazzat Makhmudova, Elmira Talipova, Gaukhar Baspakova, Akhan Myrzakhmetov, Zhanibek Smagulov, Alfiya Zagidullina Water Switzerland, 2025 The study presents a scenario analysis of the long-term dynamics of the water level of Lake Balkhash, one of the largest closed lakes in Central Asia, taking into account climate change according to CMIP6 scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) and socio-economic factors of water use. Based on historical data (1947–2021) and a water balance model, the contribution of surface runoff, precipitation and evaporation to the formation of the lake’s hydrological regime was assessed. It was established that the main source of water resources for the lake is the flow of the Ile River, which feeds the western part of the reservoir. The eastern part is characterized by extremely limited water inflow, while evaporation remains the main element of water consumption, having increased significantly in recent decades due to rising air temperatures. Increasing intra-seasonal and interannual fluctuations in water levels have been recorded: The amplitude of short-term fluctuations reached 0.7–0.8 m, which exceeds previously characteristic values. The results of water balance modeling up to 2050 show a trend towards a 30% reduction in surface inflow and an increase in evaporation by 25% compared to the 1981–2010 climate norm, which highlights the high sensitivity of the lake’s hydrological regime to climatic and anthropogenic influences. The results obtained justify the need for the comprehensive and adaptive management of water resources in the Balkhash Lake basin, taking into account the transboundary nature of water use and changing climatic conditions.
SCENARIO FORECAST OF BALKASH LAKE LEVEL BASED ON CMIP6 GLOBAL MODELS Sayat Alimkulov, Lyazzat Makhmudova, Elmira Talipova, Gaukhar Baspakova, Akhan Myrzakhmetov International Multidisciplinary Scientific Geoconference Surveying Geology and Mining Ecology Management Sgem, 2025 In the presented scientific work, a scenario forecast for the long-term perspective of water level changes in Lake Balkhash, one of the largest drainless lakes in Central Asia, is carried out. The study takes into account the impact of projected climatic changes based on CMIP6 data and the impact of socio-economic factors, including water management activities. A water balance model was used as the main tool to quantify the role of surface inflow, precipitation and evaporation in shaping the hydrological regime of the reservoir. The results of modelling under scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 for 2030, 2040 and 2050 yy. indicate an expected decrease in surface runoff volumes as a result of the combined effects of climate change and economic activity. At the same time, evaporation is projected to increase against the background of rising air temperature. In the absence of effective mechanisms for transboundary water co-operation and climate adaptation, Lake Balkhash will be faces serious environmental risks � in particular, possible partial shallowing and fragmentation of the reservoir, especially in its eastern part. These results emphasize the need for a systematic and adaptive approach to water resources management in the Balkhash basin, taking into account natural non-stationarity, regional risks and socio-economic instability.
Assessment of the impacts of climate change on drought intensity and frequency using SPI and SPEI in the Southern Pre-Balkash region, Kazakhstan Alimkulov Sayat, Makhmudova Lyazzat, Talipova Elmira, Baspakova Gaukhar, Monkayeva Gulsara Watershed Ecology and the Environment, 2025 This paper presents a study of droughts in the South Pre-Balkash region that considers climate change and its impact on the intensity and frequency of drought periods. The main objective of this study is to assess changes in climatic parameters and their impact on the development of droughts using standardized precipitation indices (SPI) and precipitation evapotranspiration (SPEI) for the period 1950–2023. Long-term rainfall and temperature data and remote sensing data from the Google Earth Engine platform were used for the analysis. The Mann-Kendall test was applied to assess trends in climatic conditions and drought characteristics. The results showed that although both the SPI and SPEI can be used to assess droughts, the SPEI is more effective at capturing changes in air temperature increases. The intensity and frequency of drought periods increased after the 1990 s, especially as measured by the SPEI. Additionally, the results of the present study indicate an increase in the intensity and frequency of dry periods, which is associated with climate change. In the study area, climate change is characterised mainly by an increase in air temperature (0.17–0.39 °C/10 years). The SPEI index is more sensitive to changes in the water balance, as it takes into account the influences of both precipitation and evaporation, in contrast to the SPI index, which considers only the influence of precipitation. Consequently, when drought conditions are analyzed using the SPEI index, a more accurate representation of the depth and severity of drought is obtained. These findings have important implications for the development of adaptation measures in agriculture and water management in the context of increasing drought risk in the Southern Pre-Balkash region.
Response of the water level of the Balkash Lake to the distribution of meteorological and hydrological droughts under the conditions of climate change Sayat Alimkulov, Lyazzat Makhmudova, E. K. Talipova, Gaukhar Baspakova, Dimitris Tigkas, Isakan Gulsaira Journal of Water and Climate Change, 2024 Hydrological droughts occur due to a variety of hydrometeorological phenomena, such as lack of precipitation, reduced snow cover and high evaporation. The values of these factors vary depending on the climate and the severity of drought events. Droughts caused by a lack of precipitation and continuing in the warm season have a longer periodicity. This important statement raises the question of whether climate change may exacerbate the phenomenon of drought. Therefore, understanding changes in the formation of hydrological droughts is key to foreseeing possible changes in the future. This scientific study analyzes the spread of hydrometeorological droughts in the Ile-Balkash basin using standardized precipitation indices and the drought index of river runoff. Lake Balkash plays an important role in the hydrological cycle and is a valuable freshwater resource, especially in dry years. Prolonged droughts in the area have serious consequences, including deterioration of water quality and loss of wetlands, which are important to the ecological system and migratory birds. The analysis shows that during the period of instrumental observations, several extreme hydrological droughts were observed in this area, (1943–1946, 1973–1975 and 1983–1987), which emphasizes the relevance and importance of scientific research on the problem of drought.
Water resources of Kazakhstan in conditions of uncertainty Aisulu Tursunova, Akhmetkal Medeu, Sayat Alimkulov, Assel Saparova, Gaukhar Baspakova Journal of Water and Land Development, 2022 The exceptionally high spatial-temporal variability of the river runoff and the significance of its transboundary component considerably worsen the problem of the water supply of the republic. Due to the disadvantageous geographical location in the lower reaches of transboundary river basins, the Republic of Kazakhstan is largely dependent on water economy activities taking place in neighbouring countries. In the article the modern change of the resources of river runoff in Kazakhstan, taking into account climatic and anthropogenic influences is considered. For the assessment of the impact of economic activities on the river runoff and changes in climatic-related runoff, the complex of integral methods was used, and appropriate methodologies were developed. The obtained results of the modern influence of a complex of factors, as well as their significance for the future (till 2030), can be used for the development of scientifically based solutions for sustainable management and protection of water resources. An assessment of the anthropogenic activity of this study shows that the water resources of the river runoff of the Republic of Kazakhstan have decreased by 16.0 km 3∙y –1. According to our forecasts, there will be a further decrease in the water resources of the republic due to the expected decrease in transboundary flow to 87.1 km 3∙y –1 by 2030, in dry years less than 50.0 km 3∙y –1. We propose a set of measures to prevent the negative impact of possible reduction of river runoff resources in the future in the water basins of Kazakhstan.
