Rafael de Freitas Souza

@usp.br

Professor
School of Economics, Business and Accounting of Ribeirao Preto (FEARP), of University of Sao Paulo (USP)

Rafael de Freitas Souza


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https://researchid.co/fsrafael

RESEARCH INTERESTS

Performance Management; Multivariate Statistics; Machine Learning; Deep Learning and Spatial Analysis.
14

Scopus Publications

319

Scholar Citations

7

Scholar h-index

5

Scholar i10-index

Scopus Publications

  • The Social Psychological Explanations for the Effects of Social Media Marketing and Traditional Media on Voting Intentions
    Marcos Inácio Severo de Almeida, Valter Afonso Vieira, Raj Agnihotri, Rafael de Freitas Souza
    Journal of Marketing Theory and Practice, 2026
  • Key drivers of non-revenue water in developing countries: Insights from a multilevel study in Brazil
    Cláudia Orsini Machado de Sousa, Rafael de Freitas Souza, Nuno Manoel Martins Dias Fouto
    Cleaner Water, 2025
    The increasing pressure on water resources has intensified the need to improve water supply efficiency, particularly by minimizing water loss. Non-revenue water (NRW) remains a critical issue in Brazil, with high loss levels impacting both financial sustainability and water security. This study employs a two-level hierarchical linear model (HLM2) to analyze NRW drivers in 310 Brazilian municipalities from 2017 to 2021. Ten factors that could influence water loss in the country were selected based on previous literature, and our results indicate that only four of them were statistically significant: population size, share of residential consumers, network length, and utility ownership. Municipalities with larger urban populations and longer distribution networks exhibited higher NRW levels, while a higher share of residential consumers correlated with lower NRW. Additionally, private utilities demonstrated lower water losses compared to public ones, likely due to stronger efficiency incentives. These findings highlight that the factors influencing NRW in Brazil differ from those commonly reported in studies based on developed countries. Therefore, policies designed to reduce NRW must consider regional specificities rather than relying solely on international benchmarks, which usually refer to developed countries. This study provides empirical evidence to support targeted interventions, helping water utilities and policymakers develop more effective NRW reduction strategies.
  • G20 Countries and Sustainable Development: Do They Live up to Their Promises on CO2 Emissions?
    Rafael Freitas Souza, Henrique Camano Rodrigues Cal, Fabiano Guasti Lima, Hamilton Luiz Corrêa, Francisco Lledo Santos, Rodrigo Bruno Zanin
    Processes, 2024
    The aim of this study was to analyze and measure idiosyncratic differences in CO2 emission trends over time and between the different geographical contexts of the G20 signatory countries and to assess whether these countries are fulfilling their carbon emission reduction commitments, as stipulated in the G20 sustainable development agendas. To this end, a multilevel mixed-effects model was used, considering CO2 emissions data from 1950 to 2021 sourced from the World Bank. The research model captured approximately 93.05% of the joint variance in the data and showed (i) a positive relationship between the increase in CO2 emissions and the creation of the G20 [CI90: +0.0080; + 0.1317]; (ii) that every year, CO2 emissions into the atmosphere are increased by an average of 0.0165 [CI95: +0.0009; +0.0321] billion tons by the G20 countries; (iii) that only Germany, France, and the United Kingdom have demonstrated a commitment to CO2 emissions reduction, showing a decreasing rate of CO2 emissions into the atmosphere; and (iv) that there seems to be a mismatch between the speed at which the G20 proposes climate policies and the speed at which these countries emit CO2.
  • PROJECTIVE TECHNIQUES: IN SEARCH OF AN ALTERNATIVE TO VALIDITY AND RELIABILITY
    Luiz Guilherme Rodrigues Antunes, Rafael de Freitas Souza, Ana Cristina Ferreira, Fernanda de Aguiar Zanola, Luiz Henrique de Barros Vilas Boas
    Revista Brasileira De Marketing, 2024
    Objective: This essay aims to discuss the rigor of the projective technique with a qualitative focus. Results: The main criticisms of projective techniques are not appropriate for qualitative research. As an alternative, the criteria proposed by Lincoln and Guba (1985) have been established. They are credibility, transferability, dependability and confirmability. Theoretical/Methodological Contributions: The essay demonstrates the methodological contribution. It also illustrates how the projective technique can be applied to build your rigor through a qualitative lens.
  • Vulnerability to poverty due to schooling: a discussion from the spatial perspective
    Dominguez Davila Rafael, Ernane Souza, Julio Araujo Carneiro d, André A. Cunha, Hamilton Luíz Corrêa, et al.
    International Journal of Applied Decision Sciences, 2024
    Economic theories point out that regional poverty is more concentrated in regions far from urban centres. However, at Brazilian Midwest, wealth-generating localities are not concentrated in those centres and may create misunderstandings about the theoretical understanding of this phenomenon, and for policymakers who need predictive tools to address the fight against poverty. Thus, it was intended to predict poverty vulnerability from educational levels in a distinct phenomenon of decentralisation. A geographically weighted regression was performed using United Nations Development Programme data on Midwest municipalities. It was pointed out that education levels can predict vulnerability to poverty, confirming the theories existing in the main agricultural area in the world. As a contribution, public policies need to be thought individual and spatially, to consider actions beyond the institutional boundaries of municipalities, in an integrated and coordinated manner between neighbouring cities.
  • Data Science, Analytics and Machine Learning with R
    Fávero, Luiz Paulo Lopes, Belfiore, Patrícia Prado, Souza, Rafael de Freitas
    Data Science Analytics and Machine Learning with R, 2023
  • Crises and the development of economic institutions: a narrow replication of Rajan and Ramcharan (2016) through a multilevel econometric approach
    Luiz Paulo Lopes Fávero, Michel Ferreira Cardia Haddad, Rafael de Freitas Souza
    SN Business and Economics, 2022
  • overdisp: an R package for direct detection of overdispersion in count data multiple regression analysis
    Rafael De Freitas Souza, Luiz Paulo Fávero, Patrícia Belfiore, Hamilton Luiz Corrêa
    International Journal of Business Intelligence and Data Mining, 2022
    Within multiple areas, log-linear count data regression is one of the most popular techniques for predictive modelling where there is a non-negative discrete quantitative dependent variable. In order to ensure the inferences from the use of count data models are appropriate, researchers may choose between the estimation of a Poisson model and a negative binomial model, and the correct decision for prediction from a count data estimation is directly linked to the existence of overdispersion of the dependent variable, conditional to the explanatory variables. That said, the overdisp command is a contribution to researchers, providing a fast and secure solution for the detection of overdispersion in count data. Real and simulated data were used to test the proposed solution, which proved to be computationally efficient, with no difference in the detection of overdispersion compared to the test postulated by the cited authors.
  • Multilevel evidence on how policymakers may reduce avoidable deaths due to COVID-19: the case of Brazil
    Rafael De Freitas Souza, Luiz Paulo Fávero, Michel Ferreira Cardia Haddad, Hamilton Luiz Corrêa
    International Journal of Mathematics in Operational Research, 2022
    We propose a hierarchical linear method to investigate the effectiveness of social distancing measures. By considering the COVID-19 data as a two-level structure, we are able to demonstrate a significant reduction of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) cases as a direct consequence of lockdown measures adopted by some states in Brazil. The multilevel modelling is the most appropriate method for the case of Brazil due to the fact that political battles between federal and State government leaders have led to the adoption of lockdown measures with distinct levels of flexibility adopted by each of its 27 states. During the outbreak of such a novel and highly contagious disease, decisions made by policymakers either prevent or increase the number of avoidable deaths. Thus, our results are also potentially useful to convince policymakers to adopt reasonable policy measures to shorten the COVID-19 pandemic in the biggest Latin American country.
  • Global relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions across time: A multilevel approach
    Luiz Paulo Fávero, Rafael De Freitas Souza, Patrícia Belfiore, Marcos Roberto Luppe, Marcos Severo
    International Journal of Global Warming, 2022
  • Zero-inflated generalized linear mixed models: A better way to understand data relationships
    Luiz Paulo Fávero, Joseph F. Hair, Rafael de Freitas Souza, Matheus Albergaria, Talles V. Brugni
    Mathematics, 2021
  • Count Data Regression Analysis: Concepts, Overdispersion Detection, Zero-inflation Identification, and Applications with R
    Luiz Paulo Fávero, R. F. Souza, P. Belfiore, H. Correa, M. Haddad
    Practical Assessment Research and Evaluation, 2021
  • Determinants of credit access of small and medium enterprises in emerging economies: Evidence from the World Bank enterprise surveys
    Marco Aurélio Dos Santos, Luiz Paulo Fávero, Nuno Manoel Martins Dias Fouto, Patrícia Belfiore, Rafael De Freitas Souza
    International Journal of Globalisation and Small Business, 2021
  • Overdisp: A stata (and mata) package for direct detection of overdispersion in poisson and negative binomial regression models
    Luiz Paulo Lopes Fávero, Patrícia Belfiore, Marco Aurélio dos Santos, R. Freitas Souza
    Statistics Optimization and Information Computing, 2020

RECENT SCHOLAR PUBLICATIONS

  • Evidence on Fair Value in Profit Forecasts: An Analysis Considering the Idiosyncratic Differences in the Influence of the Legal Systems
    MS Moraes, PCC Nardi, A Machado, RF Souza
    BAR-Brazilian Administration Review 23 (01), e250129 , 2026
    2026
  • The Social Psychological Explanations for the Effects of Social Media Marketing and Traditional Media on Voting Intentions
    MIS de Almeida, VA Vieira, R Agnihotri, R de Freitas Souza
    Journal of Marketing Theory and Practice 34 (1), 1-18 , 2026
    2026
    Citations: 1
  • Key drivers of non-revenue water in developing countries: Insights from a multilevel study in Brazil
    COM de Sousa, R de Freitas Souza, NMMD Fouto
    Cleaner Water 3, 100078 , 2025
    2025
    Citations: 8
  • Early prediction of 30-day mortality in patients with surgical wound infections following cardiothoracic surgery: Development and validation of the SWICS-30 score utilizing …
    JA Cedeno, TMV Strabelli, BAMP Besen, R de Freitas Souza, DB Sierra, ...
    The Brazilian Journal of Infectious Diseases 29 (2), 104510 , 2025
    2025
    Citations: 1
  • Evolving startup performance: temporal dynamics and strategic adaptation framework
    LGR Antunes, RF Souza, B Nunes, HL Corrêa, RVD Jordão
    Anais , 2025
    2025
  • G20 Countries and Sustainable Development: Do They Live up to Their Promises on CO 2 Emissions?
    R Freitas Souza, HCR Cal, FG Lima, HL Corrêa, FL Santos, RB Zanin
    Processes 12 (9), 2023 , 2024
    2024
    Citations: 2
  • Projective techniques: in search of an alternative to validity and reliability
    LGR Antunes, R de Freitas Souza, AC Ferreira, F de Aguiar Zanola, ...
    ReMark-Revista Brasileira de Marketing 23 (3), 1277-1314 , 2024
    2024
    Citations: 4
  • Multilevel ordinal logit models: A proportional odds application using data from Brazilian higher education institutions
    R Freitas Souza, FG Lima, HL Corrêa
    Axioms 13 (1), 47 , 2024
    2024
    Citations: 5
  • As distintas cores da vida e da morte: uma análise da dinâmica temporal nos estados brasileiros
    RF Souza, MIS Almeida, HL Corrêa, F Goldemberg, MM Gonçalves, ...
    Anais , 2024
    2024
  • Vulnerability to poverty due to schooling: a discussion from the spatial perspective
    RF Souza, JAC Cunha, HL Correa, COM Sousa
    International Journal of Applied Decision Sciences 17 (3), 313-340 , 2024
    2024
  • Aplicação de machine learning e deep learning para modelagem de uma bacia hidrográfica
    V de Azevedo Silva, R de Feiras Souza, MP Oliveira, FL dos Santos
    Paranoá 16 (34), 1-21 , 2023
    2023
    Citations: 1
  • Package ‘overdisp’
    RF Souza, HL Correa, AC Cameron, P Trivedi
    2023
  • Data science, analytics and machine learning with R
    LP Fávero, P Belfiore, R de Freitas Souza
    Academic Press , 2023
    2023
    Citations: 121
  • Crises and the development of economic institutions: a narrow replication of Rajan and Ramcharan (2016) through a multilevel econometric approach
    LPL Fávero, MFC Haddad, R de Freitas Souza
    SN Business & Economics 2 (6), 42 , 2022
    2022
  • Prediction of blast-induced ground vibration using artificial neural networks
    CB Zorzal, FL Santos, JM Silva, R Freitas Souza
    Research, Society and Development 11 (11), e576111134020 , 2022
    2022
    Citations: 2
  • Aplicação do método CODAS para ordenação das vacinas contra COVID-19 no contexto brasileiro.
    LR SILVA, FC DIAS, M SANTOS, RF SOUZA
    Universidade Federal de Campina Grande , 2022
    2022
  • Multilevel evidence on how policymakers may reduce avoidable deaths due to COVID-19: the case of Brazil
    RDF Souza, LP Fávero, MFC Haddad, HL Corrêa
    International Journal of Mathematics in Operational Research 21 (3), 321-337 , 2022
    2022
    Citations: 1
  • overdisp: an R package for direct detection of overdispersion in count data multiple regression analysis
    RDF Souza, LP Fávero, P Belfiore, HL Corrêa
    International Journal of Business Intelligence and Data Mining 20 (3), 327-344 , 2022
    2022
    Citations: 3
  • Global relationship between economic growth and CO 2 emissions across time: a multilevel approach
    LP Fávero, RDF Souza, P Belfiore, MR Luppe, M Severo
    International Journal of Global Warming 26 (1), 38-63 , 2022
    2022
    Citations: 39
  • Evolution of COVID-19 lethality and geographically contrasting socio-economic factors in Brazil: A multilevel perspective
    JF Hair, LP Fávero, RDF Souza
    The Routledge Handbook of Contemporary Inequalities and the Life Course, 81-96 , 2021
    2021

MOST CITED SCHOLAR PUBLICATIONS

  • Data science, analytics and machine learning with R
    LP Fávero, P Belfiore, R de Freitas Souza
    Academic Press , 2023
    2023
    Citations: 121
  • Count data regression analysis: Concepts, overdispersion detection, zero-inflation identification, and applications with R.
    LP Fávero, RF Souza, P Belfiore, HL Corrêa, MFC Haddad
    Practical Assessment, Research & Evaluation 26, 13 , 2021
    2021
    Citations: 45
  • Overdisp: A stata (and Mata) package for direct detection of overdispersion in poisson and negative binomial regression models
    LPL Fávero, P Belfiore, MA dos Santos, RF Souza
    Statistics, Optimization & Information Computing 8 (3), 773-789 , 2020
    2020
    Citations: 45
  • Global relationship between economic growth and CO 2 emissions across time: a multilevel approach
    LP Fávero, RDF Souza, P Belfiore, MR Luppe, M Severo
    International Journal of Global Warming 26 (1), 38-63 , 2022
    2022
    Citations: 39
  • Zero-inflated generalized linear mixed models: A better way to understand data relationships
    LP Fávero, JF Hair Jr, RF Souza, M Albergaria, TV Brugni
    Mathematics 9 (10), 1100 , 2021
    2021
    Citations: 33
  • Key drivers of non-revenue water in developing countries: Insights from a multilevel study in Brazil
    COM de Sousa, R de Freitas Souza, NMMD Fouto
    Cleaner Water 3, 100078 , 2025
    2025
    Citations: 8
  • Determinants of credit access of small and medium enterprises in emerging economies: Evidence from the World Bank enterprise surveys
    MAD Santos, LP Fávero, NMMD Fouto, P Belfiore, RDF Souza
    International Journal of Globalisation and Small Business 12 (3), 266-298 , 2021
    2021
    Citations: 8
  • Multilevel ordinal logit models: A proportional odds application using data from Brazilian higher education institutions
    R Freitas Souza, FG Lima, HL Corrêa
    Axioms 13 (1), 47 , 2024
    2024
    Citations: 5
  • Projective techniques: in search of an alternative to validity and reliability
    LGR Antunes, R de Freitas Souza, AC Ferreira, F de Aguiar Zanola, ...
    ReMark-Revista Brasileira de Marketing 23 (3), 1277-1314 , 2024
    2024
    Citations: 4
  • overdisp: an R package for direct detection of overdispersion in count data multiple regression analysis
    RDF Souza, LP Fávero, P Belfiore, HL Corrêa
    International Journal of Business Intelligence and Data Mining 20 (3), 327-344 , 2022
    2022
    Citations: 3
  • G20 Countries and Sustainable Development: Do They Live up to Their Promises on CO 2 Emissions?
    R Freitas Souza, HCR Cal, FG Lima, HL Corrêa, FL Santos, RB Zanin
    Processes 12 (9), 2023 , 2024
    2024
    Citations: 2
  • Prediction of blast-induced ground vibration using artificial neural networks
    CB Zorzal, FL Santos, JM Silva, R Freitas Souza
    Research, Society and Development 11 (11), e576111134020 , 2022
    2022
    Citations: 2
  • The Social Psychological Explanations for the Effects of Social Media Marketing and Traditional Media on Voting Intentions
    MIS de Almeida, VA Vieira, R Agnihotri, R de Freitas Souza
    Journal of Marketing Theory and Practice 34 (1), 1-18 , 2026
    2026
    Citations: 1
  • Early prediction of 30-day mortality in patients with surgical wound infections following cardiothoracic surgery: Development and validation of the SWICS-30 score utilizing …
    JA Cedeno, TMV Strabelli, BAMP Besen, R de Freitas Souza, DB Sierra, ...
    The Brazilian Journal of Infectious Diseases 29 (2), 104510 , 2025
    2025
    Citations: 1
  • Aplicação de machine learning e deep learning para modelagem de uma bacia hidrográfica
    V de Azevedo Silva, R de Feiras Souza, MP Oliveira, FL dos Santos
    Paranoá 16 (34), 1-21 , 2023
    2023
    Citations: 1
  • Multilevel evidence on how policymakers may reduce avoidable deaths due to COVID-19: the case of Brazil
    RDF Souza, LP Fávero, MFC Haddad, HL Corrêa
    International Journal of Mathematics in Operational Research 21 (3), 321-337 , 2022
    2022
    Citations: 1
  • Evidence on Fair Value in Profit Forecasts: An Analysis Considering the Idiosyncratic Differences in the Influence of the Legal Systems
    MS Moraes, PCC Nardi, A Machado, RF Souza
    BAR-Brazilian Administration Review 23 (01), e250129 , 2026
    2026
  • Evolving startup performance: temporal dynamics and strategic adaptation framework
    LGR Antunes, RF Souza, B Nunes, HL Corrêa, RVD Jordão
    Anais , 2025
    2025
  • As distintas cores da vida e da morte: uma análise da dinâmica temporal nos estados brasileiros
    RF Souza, MIS Almeida, HL Corrêa, F Goldemberg, MM Gonçalves, ...
    Anais , 2024
    2024
  • Vulnerability to poverty due to schooling: a discussion from the spatial perspective
    RF Souza, JAC Cunha, HL Correa, COM Sousa
    International Journal of Applied Decision Sciences 17 (3), 313-340 , 2024
    2024