Lucas Resende de Carvalho

@ufmg.br

Department of economic sciences

Lucas Resende de Carvalho

RESEARCH, TEACHING, or OTHER INTERESTS

Urban Studies, Health Information Management, Multidisciplinary, Business, Management and Accounting
18

Scopus Publications

1544

Scholar Citations

14

Scholar h-index

17

Scholar i10-index

Scopus Publications

  • Economic burden of malaria in the Brazilian Amazon from a societal perspective
    Monica Viegas Andrade, Kenya Valeria Micaela de Souza Noronha, Gilvan R. Guedes, Lucas Resende de Carvalho, Henrique Bracarense, et al.
    Plos Global Public Health, 2026
    Malaria remains a global health challenge, imposing a substantial economic burden on health systems and society. Comprehensive assessments of this burden have been limited. This study aimed to provide a detailed estimate of the economic burden of malaria in the Brazilian Amazon. Public health expenditures were derived from a previous study. Direct, and indirect household costs and Health-Related Quality-of-Life (HRQoL) losses were estimated using a household survey conducted in nine municipalities in five states of the Brazilian Amazon. Expenditure data were collected from 1,131 individuals who experienced a malaria episode between January 2019 and May 2022. All costs were monetized and converted to 2024 purchasing power parity US dollars (PPP-USD). The total economic burden of malaria in the Amazon in 2019 was approximately US$181.9 million PPP-USD. The Unified Health System (SUS) bore the largest share (72.4%), which was allocated primarily to control and prevention activities. The states of Amazonas, Pará, and Roraima bore the highest total burden. Household burden was predominantly driven by indirect and mortality costs, and HRQoL losses. Major limitations of the study included convenience sampling and potential recall bias regarding expenditures; the latter was mitigated by surveying items and quantities rather than monetary values. This study offers a comprehensive and unparalleled assessment of the economic burden of malaria, providing a foundation for developing effective malaria control policies at the national and local levels in Brazil. Our findings underscore the critical role of the SUS in shielding families from direct medical costs, while revealing the substantial indirect costs, health-related quality-of-life losses, and mortality-related losses borne by households. These insights are essential for informing resource allocation and strengthening malaria control and elimination strategies in the Brazilian Amazon. The study provides a conceptual framework for estimating the economic cost of malaria that can be adapted to other malaria-endemic countries.
  • Health-related quality of life due to malaria: a systematic review
    Mônica Viegas Andrade, Kenya Noronha, Gilvan Ramalho Guedes, Bernardo Campolina Diniz, Valéria Andrade Silva, et al.
    Quality of Life Research, 2025
  • Health-Related Quality of Life due to malaria in the Brazilian Amazon using EQ-5D-3L
    Mônica Viegas Andrade, Kenya Valeria Micaela de Souza Noronha, Gilvan Ramalho Guedes, Nayara Abreu Julião, Lucas Resende de Carvalho, et al.
    Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases, 2024
    Malaria is a mosquito-borne infectious disease caused by protozoa of the genus Plasmodium. Despite of the progress in malaria control in the last decades, malaria remains a major public health problem, contributing to increased morbidity and mortality in tropical and subtropical countries. Among American countries, Bolivia, Venezuela, and Brazil account for 73% of the cases. In Brazil, the majority of malaria cases is concentrated in Amazon region. This study estimated health-related quality of life (HRQoL) losses due to malaria in endemic areas of the Brazilian Amazon using the EQ-5D-3L instrument. We collected data from a convenience sample of 1,179 individuals aged 18 years or older. To measure the HRQoL loss, we matched individuals from the treatment group (with recent malaria) to those from the control group (without recent malaria) using Propensity Score Matching (PSM) and compared the difference in mean health utility between the groups. The results show a significant loss of HRQoL due to malaria. The mean utility was 0.69 and 0.83 for the treatment and control groups, respectively, representing a loss of quality of life of approximately 16.3% for individuals with recent malaria episodes. These findings underscore the importance of effective malaria prevention and treatment strategies, especially in areas where adverse socioeconomic conditions and a challenging epidemiological context exacerbate the impact of the disease. Continued investment in malaria control programs and improved access to health services are essential to mitigate the negative impact of this disease on the quality of life of affected populations.
  • The economic cost of malaria in Brazil from the perspective of the public health system
    Mônica V. Andrade, Kenya Noronha, Valéria Silva, Henrique Bracarense, Lucas Carvalho, et al.
    Plos Global Public Health, 2024
    This paper presents an economic evaluation aimed at estimating malaria-related health care expenditures in Brazil from the perspective of the public health system. Comprehensive estimates of the costs of malaria remain scarce, in part because of limited data. Brazil has a universal health system (Sistema Único de Saúde-SUS) in which all cases of malaria are diagnosed and treated. In addition, antimalarial drugs are only available through the SUS. We compiled comprehensive data from multiple administrative sources. Expenditure indicators were calculated for municipalities and states in the Brazilian Amazon, a region where more than 99% of the country’s malaria cases are concentrated. We also developed a digital platform that allows interactive visualization of the malaria cost indicators, disaggregated by cost type and geography. Our results show that control and prevention activities are the primary cost in all states, followed by human resources and disease treatment. Expenditures per malaria notification in the Amazon ranged from PPP (purchasing power parity)-US$59.00 (2017) to PPP-US$77.00 (2016), while per capita expenditures remained relatively stable at around PPP-US$3.50. The malaria cost estimates presented here contribute to a better negotiation of the financial resources needed by the NMCP and are one of the critical pieces of information for a strategic plan of activities needed to achieve the elimination goal.
  • The economic burden of malaria: a systematic review
    Mônica V. Andrade, Kenya Noronha, Bernardo P. C. Diniz, Gilvan Guedes, Lucas R. Carvalho, et al.
    Malaria Journal, 2022
    Background Quantifying disease costs is critical for policymakers to set priorities, allocate resources, select control and prevention strategies, and evaluate the cost-effectiveness of interventions. Although malaria carries a very large disease burden, the availability of comprehensive and comparable estimates of malaria costs across endemic countries is scarce. Methods A literature review to summarize methodologies utilized to estimate malaria treatment costs was conducted to identify gaps in knowledge. Results Only 45 publications met the inclusion criteria. They utilize different methods, include distinct cost components, have varied geographical coverage (a country vs a city), include different periods in the analysis, and focus on specific parasite types or population groups (e.g., pregnant women). Conclusions Cost estimates currently available are not comparable, hindering broad statements on the costs of malaria, and constraining advocacy efforts towards investment in malaria control and elimination, particularly with the finance and development sectors of the government.
  • Corrigendum to: Brazil's Family Health Strategy: factors associated with programme uptake and coverage expansion over 15 years (1998-2012)
    Monica Viegas Andrade, Augusto Quaresma Coelho, Mauro Xavier Neto, Lucas Resende de Carvalho, Rifat Atun, et al.
    Health Policy and Planning, 2021
  • Erratum: Transition to universal primary health care coverage in Brazil: Analysis of uptake and expansion patterns of Brazil’s Family Health Strategy (1998–2012) (PLoS ONE (2018) 13:8 (e0201723) DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0201723)
    Monica Viegas Andrade, Augusto Quaresma Coelho, Mauro Xavier Neto, Lucas Resende de Carvalho, Rifat Atun, et al.
    Plos One, 2021
  • The first 80 days of the covid-19 pandemic in the city of belo horizonte: From containment to reopening
    Mônica Viegas Andrade, Kenya Noronha, Cassio Maldonado Turra, Gilvan Guedes, Fernanda Cimini, et al.
    Nova Economia, 2020
    Resumo Este artigo examina o contexto e as implicações da pandemia por Covid-19 na cidade de Belo Horizonte (BH) nos primeiros 80 dias da doença. Utilizamos um recorte analítico descritivo para mensurar a evolução dos casos, o excesso de óbitos, a taxa de transmissibilidade do vírus e a pressão da doença sobre o sistema de saúde de BH e região, através da taxa de ocupação hospitalar nos leitos públicos. Além disso, identificamos as principais políticas de contenção adotadas pelas autoridades locais, bem como as implicações da redução do distanciamento social. Nossos resultados demonstram que o Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS), bem gerido, é fundamental para o enfrentamento da pandemia e a mitigação de suas consequências para a população. O processo de flexibilização que se inicia tem imposto novos desafios que requererão monitoramento atento das autoridades e da sociedade.
  • The COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil: Analysis of supply and demand of hospital and ICU beds and mechanical ventilators under different scenarios
    Kenya Valeria Micaela de Souza Noronha, Gilvan Ramalho Guedes, Cássio Maldonado Turra, Mônica Viegas Andrade, Laura Botega, et al.
    Cadernos De Saude Publica, 2020
    O objetivo deste estudo é analisar a pressão sobre o sistema de saúde no Brasil decorrente da demanda adicional gerada pela COVID-19. Para tanto, foi realizado um conjunto de simulações para estimar a demanda de leitos gerais (microrregiões de saúde), leitos de UTI e equipamentos de ventilação assistida (macrorregiões de saúde) em diferentes cenários, para intensidade (taxas de infecção equivalentes a 0,01, 0,1 e 1 caso por 100 habitantes) e horizontes temporais (1, 3 e 6 meses). Os resultados evidenciam uma situação crítica do sistema para atender essa demanda potencial, uma vez que diversas microrregiões e macrorregiões de saúde operariam além de sua capacidade, comprometendo o atendimento a pacientes principalmente aqueles com sintomas mais severos. O estudo apresenta três mensagens relevantes. Em primeiro lugar, é necessário reduzir a velocidade de propagação da COVID-19 na população brasileira, permitindo um tempo maior para a reorganização da oferta e aliviando a pressão sobre o sistema de saúde. Segundo, é necessário expandir o número de leitos disponíveis. Ainda que o setor privado contribua para amortecer o déficit de demanda, a oferta conjunta dos dois setores não seria suficiente em várias macrorregiões. A construção de hospitais de campanha é importante, tanto em locais onde historicamente há vazios assistenciais como também naqueles onde já se observa uma pressão do lado da demanda. A terceira mensagem diz respeito à organização regionalizada dos serviços de saúde que, apesar de adequada em situações de demanda usual, em momentos de pandemia este desenho implica desafios adicionais, especialmente se a distância que o paciente tiver de percorrer for muito grande.
  • Geospatial modeling of microcephaly and zika virus spread patterns in Brazil
    Pedro Amaral, Lucas Resende de Carvalho, Thiago Augusto Hernandes Rocha, Núbia Cristina da Silva, João Ricardo Nickenig Vissoci
    Plos One, 2019
  • Academic rankings and pluralism: The case of Brazil and the new version of Qualis
    Ian Coelho de Souza Almeida, Rafael Galvão de Almeida, Lucas Resende de Carvalho
    Economia, 2018
  • Transition to universal primary health care coverage in Brazil: Analysis of uptake and expansion patterns of Brazil's Family Health Strategy (1998-2012)
    Monica Viegas Andrade, Augusto Quaresma Coelho, Mauro Xavier Neto, Lucas Resende de Carvalho, Rifat Atun, et al.
    Plos One, 2018
  • Implications of Zika virus and congenital Zika syndrome for the number of live births in Brazil
    Marcia C. Castro, Qiuyi C. Han, Lucas R. Carvalho, Cesar G. Victora, Giovanny V. A. França
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2018
  • Brazil's Family Health Strategy: Factors associated with programme uptake and coverage expansion over 15 years (1998-2012)
    Monica Viegas Andrade, Augusto Quaresma Coelho, Mauro Xavier Neto, Lucas Resende de Carvalho, Rifat Atun, et al.
    Health Policy and Planning, 2018
  • Family health strategy and equity in prenatal care: A population based cross-sectional study in Minas Gerais, Brazil
    Mônica Viegas Andrade, Kenya Valéria Micaela de Souza Noronha, Allan Claudius Queiroz Barbosa, Michelle Nepomuceno Souza, Júlia Almeida Calazans, et al.
    International Journal for Equity in Health, 2017
  • Logical inconsistencies in 3 preference elicitation methods for EQ-5D health states
    Mônica Viegas Andrade, Kenya Noronha, Paul Kind, Carla de Barros Reis, Lucas Resende de Carvalho
    Medical Decision Making, 2016
  • Equity in coverage by the family health strategy in Minas Gerais state, Brazil
    Mônica Viegas Andrade, Kenya Noronha, Allan Claudius Queiroz Barbosa, Thiago Augusto Hernandes Rocha, Núbia Cristina da Silva, et al.
    Cadernos De Saude Publica, 2015
  • Societal Preferences for EQ-5D Health States from a Brazilian Population Survey
    Mônica Viegas Andrade, Kenya Noronha, Paul Kind, Ana Carolina Maia, Renata Miranda de Menezes, et al.
    Value in Health Regional Issues, 2013

RECENT SCHOLAR PUBLICATIONS

  • Economic burden of malaria in the Brazilian Amazon from a societal perspective
    MV Andrade, KVMS Noronha, GR Guedes, LR Carvalho, H Bracarense, ...
    PLOS Global Public Health 6 (5), e0006061 , 2026
    2026
  • How to make a hit: factors associated with music consumption on Spotify
    GH Galvão, AF Machado, LR de Carvalho
    Diálogo com a Economia Criativa 10 (28), 112-134 , 2025
    2025
    Citations: 1
  • Health-related quality of life due to malaria: a systematic review
    MV Andrade, K Noronha, GR Guedes, BC Diniz, VA Silva, A de Souza, ...
    Quality of Life Research 34 (2), 325-339 , 2025
    2025
    Citations: 4
  • Health-related quality of life due to malaria in the Brazilian Amazon using EQ-5D-3L
    MV Andrade, KVM de Souza Noronha, GR Guedes, NA Julião, ...
    PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 18 (12), e0012739 , 2024
    2024
    Citations: 6
  • The economic cost of malaria in Brazil from the perspective of the public health system
    MV Andrade, K Noronha, V Silva, H Bracarense, L Carvalho, DN Silva, ...
    PLOS Global Public Health 4 (10), e0003783 , 2024
    2024
    Citations: 1
  • Análise da organização hospitalar para as linhas de cuidado do IAM e AVC em Minas Gerais
    MV Andrade, K Noronha, MM Ribeiro, M Guardia, VA Silva, ...
    Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG , 2024
    2024
  • Health-related quality of life due to malaria in the Brazilian Amazon region using EQ-5D-3L
    MV Andrade, CRL Peterka, MC de Castro, K Noronha, GR Guedes, ...
    Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais , 2024
    2024
  • Territorialization of health care equipment in Minas Gerais, Brazil
    ACQ Barbosa, PVM Amaral, LR de Carvalho, MA Turci, PS Mendes
    Population Medicine 5 (Supplement) , 2023
    2023
  • Três ensaios sobre a dengue no município de Pedro Leopoldo: um estudo sobre o LIRAa
    LR de Carvalho
    Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais , 2023
    2023
  • The economic burden of malaria: a systematic review
    MV Andrade, K Noronha, BPC Diniz, G Guedes, LR Carvalho, VA Silva, ...
    Malaria journal 21 (1), 283 , 2022
    2022
    Citations: 176
  • Avaliação dos parâmetros de oferta mínimos para os leitos SUS no Brasil em 2015
    LR de Carvalho, MV Andrade, PVM do Amaral
    Planejamento e Políticas Públicas , 2021
    2021
    Citations: 3
  • Estrutura espacial e provisão de atenção primária à saúde nos municípios brasileiros
    P Amaral, LR Carvalho, L Luz, ACQ Barbosa
    Revista brasileira de estudos urbanos e regionais 23, e202110 , 2021
    2021
    Citations: 13
  • Matrizes de distâncias e tempo de deslocamento rodoviário entre os municípios brasileiros: uma atualização metodológica para 2020
    L Carvalho, P Amaral, P Mendes
    Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais , 2021
    2021
    Citations: 6
  • Estrutura espacial e provisão de atenção primária à saúde nos municípios brasileiros
    PVM do Amaral, LR de Carvalho, LS Luz, ACQ Barbosa
    Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais , 2021
    2021
  • Condicionantes territoriais do salário industrial brasileiro: uma análise municipal para a indústria de transformação-2006 a 2016
    PS Mendes, PV Amaral, LR de Carvalho, G Brito
    Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais , 2021
    2021
    Citations: 1
  • The COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil: analysis of supply and demand of hospital and ICU beds and mechanical ventilators under different scenarios
    KVMS Noronha, GR Guedes, CM Turra, MV Andrade, L Botega, ...
    Cadernos de Saúde Pública 36, e00115320 , 2020
    2020
    Citations: 552
  • Pandemia por COVID-19 em Minas Gerais, Brasil: análise da demanda e da oferta de leitos e equipamentos de ventilação assistida considerando os diferenciais de estrutura etária …
    K Noronha, G Guedes, CM Turra, MV Andrade, L Botega, D Nogueira, ...
    Nota Técnica. Belo Horizonte: UFMG , 2020
    2020
    Citations: 14
  • Análise de demanda e oferta de leitos hospitalares gerais, UTI e equipamentos de ventilação assistida no Brasil em função da pandemia do COVID-19: impactos microrregionais …
    K Noronha, G Guedes, CM Turra, MV Andrade, L Botega, D Nogueira, ...
    Notas Técnicas Cedeplar-UFMG , 2020
    2020
    Citations: 21
  • Demand for hospitalization services for COVID-19 patients in Brazil
    MC Castro, LR de Carvalho, T Chin, R Kahn, GVA França, EM Macário, ...
    MedRxiv, 2020.03. 30.20047662 , 2020
    2020
    Citations: 97
  • Os primeiros 80 dias da pandemia da COVID-19 em Belo Horizonte: da contenção à flexibilização
    MV Andrade, K Noronha, CM Turra, G Guedes, F Cimini, LC Ribeiro, ...
    Nova Economia 30, 701-737 , 2020
    2020
    Citations: 32

MOST CITED SCHOLAR PUBLICATIONS

  • The COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil: analysis of supply and demand of hospital and ICU beds and mechanical ventilators under different scenarios
    KVMS Noronha, GR Guedes, CM Turra, MV Andrade, L Botega, ...
    Cadernos de Saúde Pública 36, e00115320 , 2020
    2020
    Citations: 552
  • The economic burden of malaria: a systematic review
    MV Andrade, K Noronha, BPC Diniz, G Guedes, LR Carvalho, VA Silva, ...
    Malaria journal 21 (1), 283 , 2022
    2022
    Citations: 176
  • Implications of Zika virus and congenital Zika syndrome for the number of live births in Brazil
    MC Castro, QC Han, LR Carvalho, CG Victora, GVA França
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115 (24), 6177-6182 , 2018
    2018
    Citations: 113
  • Brazil’s Family Health Strategy: factors associated with programme uptake and coverage expansion over 15 years (1998–2012)
    MV Andrade, AQ Coelho, M Xavier Neto, LR Carvalho, R Atun, MC Castro
    Health policy and planning 33 (3), 368-380 , 2018
    2018
    Citations: 108
  • Demand for hospitalization services for COVID-19 patients in Brazil
    MC Castro, LR de Carvalho, T Chin, R Kahn, GVA França, EM Macário, ...
    MedRxiv, 2020.03. 30.20047662 , 2020
    2020
    Citations: 97
  • Transition to universal primary health care coverage in Brazil: analysis of uptake and expansion patterns of Brazil’s Family Health Strategy (1998-2012)
    MV Andrade, AQ Coelho, M Xavier Neto, LR Carvalho, R Atun, MC Castro
    PloS one 13 (8), e0201723 , 2018
    2018
    Citations: 86
  • A equidade na cobertura da Estratégia Saúde da Família em Minas Gerais, Brasil
    MV Andrade, K Noronha, ACQ Barbosa, TAH Rocha, NC Silva, ...
    Cadernos de Saúde Pública 31, 1175-1187 , 2015
    2015
    Citations: 82
  • Societal preferences for EQ-5D health states from a Brazilian population survey
    MV Andrade, K Noronha, P Kind, AC Maia, RM de Menezes, CDB Reis, ...
    Value in health regional issues 2 (3), 405-412 , 2013
    2013
    Citations: 78
  • Estrutura de concorrência no setor de operadoras de planos de saúde no Brasil
    MV Andrade, AC Maia, HW Lima, LR Carvalho
    Agência Nacional de Saúde Suplementar , 2015
    2015
    Citations: 34
  • Os primeiros 80 dias da pandemia da COVID-19 em Belo Horizonte: da contenção à flexibilização
    MV Andrade, K Noronha, CM Turra, G Guedes, F Cimini, LC Ribeiro, ...
    Nova Economia 30, 701-737 , 2020
    2020
    Citations: 32
  • Análise de demanda e oferta de leitos hospitalares gerais, UTI e equipamentos de ventilação assistida no Brasil em função da pandemia do COVID-19: impactos microrregionais …
    K Noronha, G Guedes, CM Turra, MV Andrade, L Botega, D Nogueira, ...
    Notas Técnicas Cedeplar-UFMG , 2020
    2020
    Citations: 21
  • Geospatial modeling of microcephaly and zika virus spread patterns in Brazil
    P Amaral, L Resende de Carvalho, TA Hernandes Rocha, NC da Silva, ...
    PloS one 14 (9), e0222668 , 2019
    2019
    Citations: 18
  • Family health strategy and equity in prenatal care: a population based cross-sectional study in Minas Gerais, Brazil
    MV Andrade, KVMS Noronha, AC Queiroz Barbosa, MN Souza, ...
    International journal for equity in health 16 (1), 24 , 2017
    2017
    Citations: 18
  • Pandemia por COVID-19 em Minas Gerais, Brasil: análise da demanda e da oferta de leitos e equipamentos de ventilação assistida considerando os diferenciais de estrutura etária …
    K Noronha, G Guedes, CM Turra, MV Andrade, L Botega, D Nogueira, ...
    Nota Técnica. Belo Horizonte: UFMG , 2020
    2020
    Citations: 14
  • Academic rankings and pluralism: The case of Brazil and the new version of Qualis
    IC de Souza Almeida, RG de Almeida, LR de Carvalho
    EconomiA , 2018
    2018
    Citations: 14
  • Estrutura espacial e provisão de atenção primária à saúde nos municípios brasileiros
    P Amaral, LR Carvalho, L Luz, ACQ Barbosa
    Revista brasileira de estudos urbanos e regionais 23, e202110 , 2021
    2021
    Citations: 13
  • Music consumption in Brazil: an analysis of streaming reproductions
    GBV de Melo, AF Machado, LR de Carvalho
    Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais , 2020
    2020
    Citations: 12
  • Equidade na saúde: o Programa de Saúde da Família em Minas Gerais
    MV Andrade, K Noronha, AC Barbosa, N Silva, T Rocha, R Arantes
    Belo Horizonte: Autêntica Editora , 2013
    2013
    Citations: 9
  • Matrizes de distâncias e tempo de deslocamento rodoviário entre os municípios brasileiros: uma atualização metodológica para 2020. Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG 630 …
    LR de Carvalho, PVM do Amaral, PS Mendes
    Environ. Res. Lett 13, 084021 , 2018
    2018
    Citations: 7
  • Avaliação do laboratório de inovações no cuidado das condições crônicas na atenção primária à saúde de Santo Antônio do Monte
    MV Andrade, K Noronha, C Cardoso, C Lorenzi, CM Rodrigues, ...
    Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG , 2017
    2017
    Citations: 7