Dr Siti Fatimah Ismail

@um.edu.my

University of Malaya

Dr Siti Fatimah Ismail


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https://researchid.co/sfi_um25

EDUCATION

PhD in Econometrics

RESEARCH, TEACHING, or OTHER INTERESTS

Economics and Econometrics, Modeling and Simulation, Statistics and Probability, General Economics, Econometrics and Finance

FUTURE PROJECTS

Assessing the Relative Effectiveness of Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Stabilizing the Malaysian Economy: A Macroeconometric Modeling Approach

This study investigates the relative effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies in stabilizing the Malaysian economy through advanced macroeconometric modeling. While both policy instruments have historically played crucial roles in managing growth, inflation, and employment, evidence on their comparative impact remains inconclusive. Drawing on quarterly data from 1980–2025, the research employs ARDL/ECM, and simulation techniques to analyze short- and long-run effects of policy shocks, including responses under crisis versus stable growth conditions. By assessing the dynamic interactions of interest rates, money supply, exchange rate interventions, government spending, taxation, and fiscal deficits, the study provides empirical insights into which policy is more effective under varying macroeconomic environments. Expected outcomes include evidence-based recommendations for optimal policy coordination between Bank Negara Malaysia and the Ministry


Applications Invited
1. Grant 2. PhD Student

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Effectiveness in ASEAN: A Panel Macroeconometric Approach

Macroeconomic policy remains at the center of debates on sustainable growth and stability. For ASEAN countries, monetary and fiscal policies play critical roles in navigating global shocks, financial integration, and development challenges. Yet, little is known about their relative effectiveness across countries with varying economic structures. This project employs panel macroeconometric modeling (Panel VAR, GMM, and panel cointegration) using quarterly data for ASEAN economies (2000–2025) to systematically evaluate the comparative effectiveness of monetary versus fiscal policy. It will explore both short-run and long-run effects, examine cross-country heterogeneity, and simulate policy scenarios. Expected outcomes include evidence-based recommendations for optimal policy coordination between Bank Negara Malaysia and the Ministry of Finance, contributions to macroeconomic theory in emerging economies, and support for Malaysia’s long-term development agenda.


Applications Invited
1. Grant 2. PhD Student 3. Government Bodies
7

Scopus Publications

Scopus Publications

  • Investigating the effects of monetary versus fiscal policies on GDP growth in Malaysia: Smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) approach
    Siti Fatimah Ismail, Siok Kun Sek
    Aip Conference Proceedings, 2021
    The existence of nonlinear effect of monetary and fiscal policies on economic performance have intensively discussed and debated among policy makers. In particular, the main objective of this paper is to investigate the performance of monetary versus fiscal policies on GDP growth. The study is based on time series data for the period of 1981Q1-2018Q1. The results reveal that GDP lag two term is a transition parameter of AR(1) and has significance effect on economic growth. Comparing policies, monetary policy where real effective exchange rate is able to stimulate higher growth but the fiscal policy through government spending, government debt and current imbalances fail to lead to higher GDP growth. Overall, we can conclude that monetary policy through exchange rate is more effective to promote growth compared to fiscal policy.
  • Investigating the effects of monetary and fiscal policy on economic growth in ASEAN: A threshold modelling approach
    Siti Fatimah Ismail, Siok Kun Sek
    ASM Science Journal, 2020
    In the economic theory, many arguments from the different school of thoughts have been raised to justify the efficiency of economic policy in the view of stabilization. For instance, the correlation between macroeconomic variables and economic performance is a contentious issue. In this paper, we carefully examine and compare the impacts of fiscal (government expenditure) versus monetary policy (broad money and real interest rate) on economic growth using nonlinear regression. In particular, the main objectives include (1) to model the nonlinear threshold effect of broad money in modelling the economic growth by considering the 1997 Asian financial crisis influences and (2) to compare the impacts of both policies on economic growth. The study is based on a panel of ASEAN5 countries for the period of 1995-2015. Panel threshold regression established by Hansen (1999) was employed. The results reported a single threshold effect of broad money on inflation before and after controlling the crisis on determining economic growth. Here we observed that monetary policy through real interest rate caused to lower GDP growth while broad money led to the trade-off between inflation and growth. When broad money is high (above the threshold value), it led to higher economic growth but was compensated with the trade-off cost of higher inflation. Also, the Asian financial crisis caused to the significant drop in economic growth in ASEAN5. Overall, the study reported inefficient fiscal policy and monetary policy in the case of ASEAN countries. Keywords: economic growth; monetary policy; fiscal policy; threshold effects
  • Investigating the effects of fiscal and monetary policy on economic performance: Dynamic panel threshold regression analysis
    Siti Fatimah Ismail, Siok Kun Sek
    Aip Conference Proceedings, 2019
    For ages, there are controversial debates from the different school of thoughts which focused on the behavior of economic experience incidents. In this paper, we carefully examine and compare the impacts of fiscal policy (government expenditure, current account balance, budget deficit and government debt) versus monetary policy (broad money and real interest rate) on economic growth using dynamic panel threshold regression of Hansen (2000). In particular, the main objectives include (1) to model the threshold effect of budget deficit in stimulating regime dependent switching of variables on economic growth and (2) to compare the impacts of both policies on economic growth between two groups of countries with current account deficit versus current account surplus. The study is based on a panel of two groups of countries for the period of 2005-2014. The results detected a first sample split threshold estimate and found that some of the variables have significance effect on economic growth regardless whether the budget deficit below or upper the threshold level. Comparing both groups of economies; we find one similarity, which both groups of economies show more effective in terms of monetary policy where broad money is able to stimulate higher growth but the fiscal policy through government spending fail to lead to higher GDP growth. Thus, it causes to lower growth in countries with current account deficit. Overall, we can conclude that current account balance has contributed to the large economic growth in countries with current account surplus while government spending has led to significant drop in the economic growth in countries with current account deficit, which indicate the failure or ineffectiveness of the fiscal policy.
  • Determinants of CO2 emissions in ASEAN countries using energy and mining indicators
    Sayed Kushairi Sayed Nordin, Khairul Fadzli Samat, Siti Fatimah Ismail, Khairum Hamzah, Bushra Abdul Halim, Sek Siok Kun
    Aip Conference Proceedings, 2015
    Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the main greenhouse gas emitted from human activities. Industrial revolution is one of the triggers to accelerate the quantity of CO2 in the atmosphere which lead to undesirable changes in the cycle of carbon. Like China and United States which are affected by the economic development growth, the atmospheric CO2 level in ASEAN countries is expected to be higher from year to year. This study focuses on energy and mining indicators, namely alternative and nuclear energy, energy production, combustible renewables and waste, fossil fuel energy consumption and the pump price for diesel fuel that contribute to CO2 emissions. Six ASEAN countries were examined from 1970 to 2010 using panel data approach. The result shows that model of cross section-fixed effect is the most appropriate model with the value of R-squared is about 86%. Energy production and fossil fuel energy consumption are found to be significantly influenced to CO2 emissions.
  • Adaptation of abbreviated mathematics anxiety rating scale for engineering students
    Sayed Kushairi Sayed Nordin, Khairul Fadzli Samat, Al Amin Mohamed Sultan, Bushra Abdul Halim, Siti Fatimah Ismail, Nurul Wirdah Mafazi
    Aip Conference Proceedings, 2015
    Mathematics is an essential and fundamental tool used by engineers to analyse and solve problems in their field. Due to this, most engineering education programs involve a concentration of study in mathematics courses whereby engineering students have to take mathematics courses such as numerical methods, differential equations and calculus in the first two years and continue to do so until the completion of the sequence. However, the students struggled and had difficulties in learning courses that require mathematical abilities. Hence, this study presents the factors that caused mathematics anxiety among engineering students using Abbreviated Mathematics Anxiety Rating Scale (AMARS) through 95 students of Universiti Teknikal Malaysia Melaka (UTeM). From 25 items in AMARS, principal component analysis (PCA) suggested that there are four mathematics anxiety factors, namely experiences of learning mathematics, cognitive skills, mathematics evaluation anxiety and students’ perception on mathematics. Minitab 16 software was used to analyse the nonparametric statistics. Kruskal-Wallis Test indicated that there is a significant difference in the experience of learning mathematics and mathematics evaluation anxiety among races. The Chi-Square Test of Independence revealed that the experience of learning mathematics, cognitive skills and mathematics evaluation anxiety depend on the results of their SPM additional mathematics. Based on this study, it is recommended to address the anxiety problems among engineering students at the early stage of studying in the university. Thus, lecturers should play their part by ensuring a positive classroom environment which encourages students to study mathematics without fear.
  • Examining the effect of extracurricular activities on academic achievements among the public university students in Malaysia
    Syafiq Shamsudin, Siti Fatimah Ismail, Abdullah Al-Mamun, Sayed Kushairi Bin Sayed Nordin
    Asian Social Science, 2014
    The objective of this study is to examine how physical, educational, and social extracurricular activities affect academic achievements of the participating students in Peninsular Malaysia. A cross-sectional design and quantitative method is applied, and complete data is collected from 150 students from three public universities in Peninsular Malaysia. Findings of this study indicate that there is no significant positive association between participation in extracurricular activities and student’s academic achievements. These alarming findings suggest that, besides emphasizing on promoting extracurricular activities to improve students’ knowledge and understanding, both universities and policy makers should be more aware of designing effective extracurricular activities and should establish a standard framework for continuous assessments of the outcome of these activities.
  • Moderating effects of support policy on agricultural productivity
    Entrepreneurship Vision 2020 Innovation Development Sustainability and Economic Growth Proceedings of the 20th International Business Information Management Association Conference Ibima 2013, 2013

GRANT DETAILS

1. Project Title: Modelling Agricultural
Growth for Malaysia’s Future

Grant: Research Acculturation Grant
Scheme (RAGS), Ministry of Education
Malaysia (Completed)

2. Project Title: Micro and Small
Enterprise Performance in Acquiring
Business Acumen: A Case Study of
Besut

Grant: GERIC Grant, Universiti
Malaysia Kelantan (Completed)

3. Project Title: The Nexus of Inflation-
Output and Efficiency in Monetary
Policy: A Comparative Analysis of
Advanced and Emerging Economies

Grant: Fundamental Research Grant
Scheme (FRGS)

RESEARCH OUTPUTS (PATENTS, SOFTWARE, PUBLICATIONS, PRODUCTS)

1. SOFTWARE- EVIEWS, STATA
2.

CONSULTANCY

1. Consultant, AI Teaching and Training Hospital for Lincoln University College

2. Independent Consultant, UKM Pakarunding – MTIB Project

INDUSTRY EXPERIENCE

1. Consulting- MTIB Project (Census on Timber Industry in Malaysia)

2. TIMEVEST SDN BHD - Spearhead business development initiatives with a strong focus on
project development, management, and strategic execution and students recruitment.