Arifa Jannat

Scopus Publications

Agro-environmental and socioeconomic determinants of crop diversification in salinity-affected coastal production systems of Bangladesh: an empirical analysis
Mohammad Chhiddikur Rahman, Md. Monirul Islam, Mst. Esmat Ara Begum, Afroza Chowdhury, Arifa Jannat, Mahanam Das, Mohammed Mainuddin, Marta Monjardino
Agriculture and Food Security, 2026
This study explores crop diversification (CD) in smallholder farming systems in the coastal zone of the Ganges Delta in southern Bangladesh, which faces significant environmental challenges such as drought, erratic rainfall, soil salinity, waterlogging, and cyclones. These factors undermine agricultural sustainability and contribute to poverty and food insecurity. This research examines how environmental, farm resource, and socioeconomic factors influence CD across 200 farms in the Barguna, Khulna, and Patuakhali districts of Bangladesh. The Herfindahl index was used to measure crop diversity, showing an average value of 0.36, indicating moderate concentration and relatively high diversity, although half of the farmers exhibited higher values. The Fractional Probit model findings show that environmental factors such as reduced waterlogging and soil salinity positively influenced CD, while farm resources like access to irrigation, number of land parcels, and access to machinery facilitated greater diversity. Socioeconomic factors, such as greater distance from markets and the availability of hired labour, also promoted CD, but seasonal migration of the household head and low household savings hindered it. The study found that Khulna exhibited greater CD, while tidal flooding limited agricultural potential in Patuakhali district . The study recommends improving environmental and socioeconomic conditions in Bangladesh’s coastal farming systems through targeted soil rehabilitation, drainage and irrigation, expansion of water infrastructure and harvesting solutions, and improving access to affordable mechanisation. Strengthening rural infrastructure and financial tools, such as crop insurance and low-interest loans, will enhance resilience, farm incomes, and long-term sustainability. Tailored strategies are recommended for the Khulna and Patuakhali districts to support region-specific cropping systems and diversification.
Determinants of modern agricultural machinery adoption in Northern Bangladesh: A multivariate probit analysis
Bristy Banik, Hasneen Jahan, Md. Rubel Ahmed, Ravi Nandi, Tamara Jackson, Arifa Jannat
Sustainable Futures, 2026
Farm mechanization is expanding in Bangladesh, yet smallholders continue to face constraints such as fragmented landholdings, high machinery costs, limited access to custom hiring services, and insufficient training. This study examines these challenges using secondary data from 5053 households in the Eastern Gangetic Plains collected under the Sustainable and Resilient Farming Systems Intensification project. Although the dataset emphasizes conservation agriculture and contains few machine-specific variables, it remains appropriate for assessing technology adoption in smallholder systems. A subsample of 1761 farmers from Rajshahi and Rangpur districts of Bangladesh was analyzed to assess the joint adoption of four modern machines: the rotavator, laser land leveler, happy seeder, and combine harvester. Unlike studies that consider single technologies, this research investigates how farmers’ adoption decisions interact. The descriptive statistics reveal that 56.8 % of households adopted the rotavator, whereas adoption of the other machines remained below 2.5 %. Multivariate Probit model identified that household size, family labor, off-farm income, machinery ownership, and institutional support generally encouraged adoption, while age, education, and limited familiarity with machinery reduced uptake for some technologies. Correlation results reveal both complementarities and substitution among machines. The findings underscore the need for targeted financial support, training, custom hiring services, and awareness programs to promote inclusive, region-appropriate mechanization. The study adds new empirical evidence by jointly analyzing multiple mechanization choices and clarifying the behavioral and structural conditions needed for sustainable agricultural intensification in smallholder systems.
Determinants of Household Adaptation to Climate Vulnerability in Wetland Areas of Bangladesh: An Empirical Estimation
Farhana Yasmin Bithi, Fahmida Akthar Roni, Jasim Uddin Ahmed, Md. Shah Alamgir, Arifa Jannat, S. M. Shahriar, Md. Monirul Islam
Climate Resilience and Sustainability, 2026
This study examines the vulnerability of farming households to climate change and the determinants of their adaptation decisions in the wetland areas of Bangladesh. Primary data from 120 households were analysed using descriptive statistics, the livelihood vulnerability index (LVI), the LVI based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (LVI‐IPCC) framework and a Binary Logistic regression model. The overall LVI score (0.53) and the LVI‐IPCC score (0.18) indicate moderate vulnerability, driven mainly by livelihood dependence on natural resources, climate variability and health‐related challenges. The Binary Logistic regression results show that family size, access to alternative income sources, perceptions of climate change and access to loans significantly influence households’ adaptation behaviour. The findings underscore the need for policies that strengthen education and skills, expand financial access and promote climate‐resilient livelihoods and infrastructure to enhance the adaptive capacity of wetland farming communities in Bangladesh.
Beyond rainfall and fertilizer: Autoregressive distributed lag insights on population, greenhouse gas emissions, and wheat sustainability in Bangladesh
Abu Hayat Md Saiful Islam, Md. Monirul Islam, Arifa Jannat, Md Shishir Ahamed, S.M. Shahriar
Environmental and Sustainability Indicators, 2026
Climate change, coupled with rapid population growth, poses substantial and escalating risks to agricultural productivity, particularly in highly vulnerable regions such as Bangladesh. This study investigates the impacts of climatic and non-climatic factors on wheat production in Bangladesh over the period 1972–2021, using 50 years of annual data and applying an autoregressive distributed lag approach in conjunction with an error correction model. Long-run cointegration results indicate that a 1% increase in cultivated area, fertilizer application, and rainfall leads to increases in wheat production of approximately 3.19%, 1.51%, and 0.18%, respectively. In contrast, a 1% rise in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and population is associated with reductions in wheat production of about 2.05% and 6.89%, respectively. In the short run, a 1% increase in cultivated area, fertilizer use, gross domestic product, GHG emissions, and rainfall results in corresponding increases in wheat production of approximately 1.75%, 1.28%, 4.60%, 0.44%, and 0.05%, respectively. However, a 1% increase in the total ecological footprint reduces wheat yield by 2.41%. These findings underscore the importance of policies that expand access to government and communal land, provide subsidized fertilizers, and reduce GHG emissions to enhance wheat production and climate resilience. Furthermore, prioritizing population management is essential to mitigating adverse impacts on wheat production and ensuring long-term food security and sustainable agricultural development in Bangladesh. • Examine long- and short-run effects of climatic and socio-economic factors on wheat output. • Employ ARDL cointegration and ECM using national time-series data (1972–2021). • Cultivated area, fertilizer use, and rainfall significantly enhance long-run wheat production. • Population pressure and GHG emissions exert substantial negative long-run impacts. • Policy priorities include GHG emission mitigation, population management, and input support.
Livestock Production and Dairy Sector Performance in Bangladesh: Does Dairy Productivity Promote Smallholder Commercialization?
Arifa Jannat, Md. Salman, Jasim Uddin Ahmed, Abebayehu Girma Geffersa, Md. Monirul Islam
Food and Energy Security, 2026
Low dairy sector performance is a significant barrier to agricultural transformation in developing countries, where improving dairy productivity can drive market participation and commercialization. Smallholder farmers often struggle to realize the benefits of commercialization due to institutional challenges and supply‐side constraints that limit productivity and reduce marketable surpluses. This study investigates the socioeconomic, infrastructural, and institutional factors affecting dairy sector performance and its role in boosting smallholder commercialization in Bangladesh. Using data from rural smallholder farmers in the Sirajganj district, the study employs Cragg's Double‐Hurdle model to examine dairy commercialization as a two‐step process: market participation and the extent of participation (sales volume). The findings reveal that higher milk production enhances both market participation and sales volume. Moreover, household head age and experience positively influence market participation, while education level, vocational training, and family labor increase sales. However, greater market distance hinders participation, underscoring the need for improved infrastructure. Policy recommendations include increasing milk production through training and resources, enhancing market infrastructure, reducing transport costs, expanding vocational training, addressing gender barriers, and promoting education. These measures can strengthen smallholder dairy farmers' market engagement and improve their economic outcomes, contributing to agricultural transformation in Bangladesh.
Determinants and Welfare Impacts of Combined Harvester Adoption in Wetland Areas of Bangladesh: The Role of Market Participation
Md. Monirul Islam, Dewan Abdullah Al Rafi, Md Abdullah Al Noman, Arifa Jannat, Ekram Hossain Emon, Jasim Uddin Ahmed
Food and Energy Security, 2026
Despite extensive research on climate‐related vulnerabilities in Bangladesh's wetland ecosystems, there remains limited empirical evidence on the drivers of combined harvester adoption in rice cultivation, particularly in flash flood‐prone regions. This study examines the determinants of combined harvester adoption and its subsequent effects on market participation and household welfare among smallholder farmers in the wetland areas of Sunamganj district in Bangladesh. Leveraging a multistage random sampling technique, we collected household‐level data from 200 boro rice growers. The empirical strategy employs a Probit model to identify the determinants of combined harvester adoption and a Heckman two stage selection model to account for potential selection bias in estimating the effects on market participation and welfare outcomes. Our findings indicate that combined harvester adoption is significantly influenced by farm size, household income, land tenure arrangement, and access to agricultural information. Landowners exhibit an 11.4% higher likelihood of adoption, while access to information increases adoption probability by 16.1%, underscoring the salience of information asymmetries in technology diffusion. Moreover, combined harvester adoption significantly enhances market participation, leading to higher per capita income and expenditure among smallholders. Additionally, Heckman two stage estimates indicate that adopters benefit from increased productivity and reduced labor constraints than non‐adopters. These findings highlight the importance of improving information access, strengthening extension services, and enabling land consolidation to promote combined harvester adoption in the clmate vulnerable wetland areas. Overall, expanding information access, strengthening extension services, and supporting larger farm operations can significantly boost combined harvester adoption and market participation, ultimately improving smallholder resilience and livelihoods.
Analyzing Food Security and Livelihood Dynamics of the Indigenous Community in Bangladesh: A Post-COVID-19 Perspective
Hasneen Jahan, Arifa Jannat, Md Abdullah Al Noman, Sumaiyea Siddika, Tanjum Afrin Taj, Md. Rubel Ahmed
Food and Energy Security, 2026
This study investigated the post‐COVID‐19 food security and livelihood status of the marginalized Garo indigenous community in Bangladesh. A cross‐sectional household survey was conducted from August to November 2023, encompassing 300 households in the Tangail and Mymensingh districts of Bangladesh. The household food insecurity access scale (HFIAS) and a livelihood assessment index (LAI) were utilized in conjunction with a logistic regression model to ascertain the determinants of household food security. The findings revealed that food insecurity, which was prevalent in 93% of households during lockdown, improved to 59% after the pandemic. Financial capital and natural capital were most significantly impacted, whereas physical capital remained relatively stable. The regression analysis indicated that increased household income, natural capital, and physical capital are positively and significantly correlated with food security status. Common coping strategies, which include reducing meal size and frequency and consuming fewer preferred foods, were identified. The findings also suggest that despite ongoing recovery, persistent structural vulnerabilities necessitate policy interventions, including income support, targeted credit, improved agricultural inputs, and strengthened social safety nets, to enhance resilience and mitigate reliance on negative coping mechanisms within indigenous households.
Is Nudging Effective in Promoting Blue Bond Investment? Evidence From Japanese Retail Investors
Kentaka Aruga, Md. Monirul Islam, Arifa Jannat
Sustainable Development, 2025
This study examines how behavioral nudges influence Japanese retail investors' willingness to invest in blue bonds (BBs) denominated in JPY and USD. Using the MINDSPACE framework, which identifies nine key nudges, the study applies the double‐bounded dichotomous choice contingent valuation method (DBDC‐CVM) to assess willingness to invest at different interest rate levels. Data were collected from 1215 investors via an online survey in August 2023. The findings indicate that the messenger and priming nudges lowered the required interest rate for JPY‐denominated BBs, while the other seven nudges had no significant effect. Ensemble machine learning confirmed the importance of these two nudges. Additionally, none of the nudging components influenced investment in USD‐denominated BBs, suggesting that when returns are high, behavioral nudges lose their effectiveness. These results provide insights into the role of behavioral interventions in sustainable finance and highlight the limitations of nudging in shaping investment decisions.
Revealing the interrelationship of economic, environmental, and social factors with globalization in G-7 countries tourism growth: A CS-ARDL approach
Arifa Jannat, Md. Monirul Islam, Kentaka Aruga
Sustainable Futures, 2025
Sustainable tourism is a key driver of economic growth in G-7 countries, contributing significantly to gross domestic product (GDP) and employment. However, its rapid expansion raises concerns about environmental impact, including CO 2 emissions and resource consumption, while globalization and green technology offer both challenges and opportunities for sustainable growth. This study explores the dynamic relationship between climate change, economic growth, green technology, globalization, government effectiveness, and tourism growth in G-7 countries from 1996 to 2019, providing new insights into the dynamics of sustainable tourism. Using the cross-sectional autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) model and panel data techniques, the findings reveal that GDP and green technology innovations positively impact sustainable tourism growth, while CO 2 emissions hinder it. Specifically, a 1% increase in GDP and green innovations boost sustainable tourism by 0.83% and 4.71%, respectively, while higher emissions reduce growth by 0.77%. The research emphasizes the importance of economic development and green technology for fostering sustainable tourism in G-7 nations.
Patterns of livelihood diversification in farming systems of the Eastern Gangetic Plains
Tamara M. Jackson, Ravi Nandi, Arifa Jannat, Arunava Ghosh, Dilip Kumar Hajra, Biplab Mitra, Md Mamunur Rashid, Sagar Bista, Anjana Chaudhary, Pragya Timsina, Emma Karki, Kali Rattan Chakma, Gunjan Rana, Avinash Kishore
Agricultural Systems, 2025
The Eastern Gangetic Plains (EGP) is a region characterized by smallholder-dominated farming systems, facing rapid socio-economic and environmental changes. Livelihood diversification away from traditional agriculture is increasingly seen as a strategy to enhance resilience, income stability, and food security among these smallholders. However, comprehensive understanding of diversification patterns and their drivers within the EGP remains limited. This study aims to elucidate the patterns of livelihood diversification in farming systems across the EGP, and identify the key factors driving diversification. Utilizing data from the Rupantar project involving a baseline survey of 1400 households across India, Nepal, and Bangladesh, and a subsequent analysis employing the Simpson's Index of Diversity (SID) to quantify diversification levels. Multivariate regression models were used to explore the determinants of diversification, while disaggregating the analysis by country and diversification components (crop plot, crop non-plot, and non-crop non-plot). The study revealed moderate levels of diversification across the EGP, with significant geographical and contextual variability. Key drivers of diversification included access to resources, gender, education, market access, and institutional support, with notable differences across countries and diversification types. Specifically, non-ownership of irrigation pumps, female household headship, and engagement in off-farm and non-farm activities emerged as significant predictors of higher diversification levels. This study contributes to a nuanced understanding of livelihood diversification in the EGP, highlighting the complexity of diversification patterns and the multifaceted nature of its determinants and impacts. By identifying specific drivers of diversification, the findings provide valuable insights for policymakers, development practitioners, and researchers aiming to support rural livelihoods in the region. Emphasizing the role of gender, resource access, and institutional support, the study underscores the importance of tailored interventions to enhance the resilience and sustainability of smallholder farming systems in the face of changing environmental and socio-economic conditions. • Smallholders face socio-economic and environmental challenges, necessitating diversification for resilience in the EGP. • Elucidates livelihood diversification patterns in the EGP, identifying drivers of diversification by type and location. • Diversification levels vary geographically; key drivers are resource access, gender, education, market access, and support. • Findings guide policymakers to support resilience and sustainability in smallholder farming through tailored interventions.
Status and drivers of crop diversification in the Eastern Gangetic Plains of South Asia: Across borders and communities
Ravi Nandi, Tamara Jackson, Arifa Jannat, Arunava Ghosh, Biplab Mitra, Kali Ratan Chakma, Pragya Timsina, Anjana Chaudhary, Wakilur Rahman, Emma Karki, Gunjan Rana, Timothy J. Krupnik, Pashupati Pokhrel
Journal of Agriculture and Food Research, 2025
Dataset on the patterns of livelihood diversification in farming systems of the Eastern Gangetic Plains of South Asia
Tamara M. Jackson, Ravi Nandi, Arifa Jannat, Arunava Ghosh, Dilip Kumar Hajra, Biplab Mitra, Md Mamunur Rashid, Sagar Bista, Anjana Chaudhary, Pragya Timsina, Emma Karki, Kali Ratan Chakma, Gunjan Rana, Avinash Kishore
Data in Brief, 2025
Harnessing complexity: integrating remote sensing and fuzzy expert system for evaluating land use land cover changes and identifying mangrove forest vulnerability in Bangladesh
Md. Monirul Islam, Dewan Abdullah Al Rafi, Arifa Jannat, Kentaka Aruga, Sabine Liebenehm, Radita Hossain
Journal of Coastal Conservation, 2025
The role of livelihood diversification in agricultural modernization among tribal farmers in Bangladesh: A binary logistic model approach
Anika Tasnim, Jasim Uddin Ahmed, Md. Jahangir Alam Khan, Md. Abdullah Al-Noman, Arifa Jannat, Md. Monirul Islam
Plos One, 2025
What enables agricultural diversification in the Eastern Gangetic Plains? Learning from past success
Arifa Jannat, Avinash Kishore, Tamara Jackson, M. Wakilur Rahman, Md. Mojammel Haque, Md. Mamunur Rashid, Tapan Chowdhury, Kalyan Kanti Das, Indu Raj Joshi
Urban Agriculture and Regional Food Systems, 2025
Women participation in South Asian agriculture: a comprehensive systematic review
Md. Monirul Islam, Arifa Jannat, Dewan Abdullah Al Rafi
Discover Sustainability, 2024
Forecasting Foreign Direct Investment Inflow to Bangladesh: Using an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and a Machine Learning-Based Random Forest Approach
Md. Monirul Islam, Arifa Jannat, Kentaka Aruga, Md Mamunur Rashid
Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 2024
Disaggregated Impact of Non-Renewable Energy Consumption on the Environmental Sustainability of the United States: A Novel Dynamic ARDL Approach
Tanmoy Kumar Ghose, Md Rezanual Islam, Kentaka Aruga, Arifa Jannat, Md. Monirul Islam
Sustainability Switzerland, 2024
Assessing the CO2 Emissions and Energy Source Consumption Nexus in Japan
Kentaka Aruga, Md. Monirul Islam, Arifa Jannat
Sustainability Switzerland, 2024
The impacts of COVID-19 on seafood prices in Japan: A comparison between cheap and luxury products
Kentaka Aruga, Md. Monirul Islam, Arifa Jannat
Plos One, 2023
Developing Novel Technique for Investigating Guidelines and Frameworks: A Text Mining Comparison between International and Japanese Green Bonds
Kentaka Aruga, Md. Monirul Islam, Yoshihiro Zenno, Arifa Jannat
Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 2022
Effects of the State of Emergency during the COVID-19 Pandemic on Tokyo Vegetable Markets
Kentaka Aruga, Md. Monirul Islam, Arifa Jannat
Sustainability Switzerland, 2022
Investigating the Impact of International Markets on Imported and Exported Non-Cereal Crops in Bangladesh
Arifa Jannat, Kentaka Aruga, Jun Furuya, Miyuki Iiyama
Agriculture Switzerland, 2022
Revealing the pathway of reluctancy toward agricultural credit repayment: a case study on fish farmers in Bangladesh
Dewan Abdullah Al Rafi, Sanzida Taurin, Kentaka Aruga, Md. Monirul Islam, Arifa Jannat
SN Business and Economics, 2022
Does Climate Change Affect Rapeseed Production in Exporting and Importing Countries? Evidence from Market Dynamics Syntheses
Arifa Jannat, Yuki Ishikawa-Ishiwata, Jun Furuya
Sustainability Switzerland, 2022
Does Staying at Home during the COVID-19 Pandemic Help Reduce CO2 Emissions?
Kentaka Aruga, Md. Monirul Islam, Arifa Jannat
Sustainability Switzerland, 2021
Assessing the impacts of climate variations on the potato production in bangladesh: A supply and demand model approach
Arifa Jannat, Yuki Ishikawa-Ishiwata, Jun Furuya
Sustainability Switzerland, 2021
Food security and dietary diversity of tea workers of two tea gardens in greater Sylhet district of Bangladesh
Jasim Uddin Ahmed, Md. Nur Mozahid, Aurup Ratan Dhar, Md. Shah Alamgir, Arifa Jannat, Md. Monirul Islam
Geojournal, 2021
Impact assessment of agricultural modernization on sustainable livelihood among tribal and non-tribal farmers in Bangladesh
Arifa Jannat, Md. Monirul Islam, Md. Shah Alamgir, Dewan Abdullah Al Rafi, Jasim Uddin Ahmed
Geojournal, 2021
Effects of COVID-19 on Indian energy consumption
Kentaka Aruga, Md. Monirul Islam, Arifa Jannat
Sustainability Switzerland, 2020
Factors determining conversion of agricultural land use in Bangladesh: farmers’ perceptions and perspectives of climate change
Md. Monirul Islam, Arifa Jannat, Aurup Ratan Dhar, Tofael Ahamed
Geojournal, 2020
Dataset on the Impact of GO-NGO Support on Crop Intensification and Food Security in Bangladesh
Md. Monirul Islam, Arifa Jannat, Aurup Ratan Dhar
Data in Brief, 2018
Adoption prospects and implication problems of practicing conservation agriculture in Bangladesh: A socioeconomic diagnosis
Aurup Ratan Dhar, Md. Monirul Islam, Arifa Jannat, Jasim Uddin Ahmed
Soil and Tillage Research, 2018
Wetland agribusiness aspects and potential in Bangladesh
Aurup Ratan Dhar, Md. Monirul Islam, Arifa Jannat, Jasim Uddin Ahmed
Data in Brief, 2018

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