Oliver Fricko

Scopus Publications

Maritime sector pathways toward net-zero emissions within global energy scenarios
Diogo Kramel, Volker Krey, Oliver Fricko, Florian Maczek, Helene Muri, Anders H. Strømman
Scientific Reports, 2026
The maritime sector’s transition toward decarbonization cannot occur in isolation, rather it will be tied to broader transformations in energy, economic, and societal systems. Yet, most existing studies often overlook this integrated perspective, focusing primarily on sector-specific strategies without considering broader societal changes and energy availability on a global scale. To address this gap, this study integrates the MariTeam ship emission model into the MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM integrated assessment framework. Through this approach, we assess how climate scenarios may influence the maritime sector’s trajectory toward achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, in line with the International Maritime Organization (IMO) targets. Our findings indicate that action before 2030 is crucial and it can be achieved through combining four key solutions: improvements in energy efficiency, biofuels, liquefied hydrogen, and ammonia. Furthermore, the results suggest that the maritime sector could have access to enough renewables to achieve substantial emissions reductions with increase in final product costs ranging from 2 to 30% (interquartile range) with variations across products and regions. On average, cost increases are estimated at 10.2% for Global North countries and 13.3% for Global South countries. This analysis highlights the urgency and scale of transformation required for the maritime industry to meet the IMO’s net-zero ambitions and align with broader global sustainability goals.
Challenges and opportunities of the full phase-out of fossil fuels under the 1.5 °C goal
Shotaro Mori, Siddharth Joshi, Volker Krey, Ken Oshiro, Oliver Fricko, Takuya Hara, Shinichiro Fujimori
Nature Communications, 2026
The COP28 decision called for transitioning away from fossil fuels, sparking a growing interest in their full phase-out. However, energy system transformation pathways towards a phase-out of fossil fuels, which may reduce the reliance on carbon dioxide removal to meet the 1.5 °C goal, remain unclear. Here, we employ two global energy system models to explore energy system transformations and the challenges and opportunities associated with attaining a full phase-out of fossil fuels. We found that phasing out fossil fuels by 2050 would require accelerating direct and indirect electrification, involving 1.6–1.8-fold increases in power generation compared to the conventional cost-effective 1.5 °C pathways. This transition from cost-effective to fossil fuel phase-out pathways would increase energy supply investments by up to 34% over this century and require accelerated deployment of solar and wind power, as well as electrolysers. Despite opportunities including lower reliance on carbon dioxide removal and increasing probability of returning to 1.5 °C after temperature overshoot, these additional requirements imply that international society must approach the transition towards zero-fossil energy systems with strong determination.
Promising climate progress from net-zero ambitions to the Paris Agreement goal
Isabela S. Tagomori, Fabio A. Diuana, Luiz Bernardo Baptista, Christoph Bertram, Ioannis Dafnomilis, Laurent Drouet, Florian Fosse, Dimitris Fragkiadakis, Oliver Fricko, Elena Hooijschuur, Gokul Iyer, Jarmo S. Kikstra, Volker Krey, Gunnar Luderer, Yang Ou, Lara Aleluia Reis, Oliver Richters, Pedro R. R. Rochedo, Zoi Vrontisi, Matthias Weitzel, Matthew Zwerling, Bas van Ruijven, Roberto Schaeffer, Detlef van Vuuren
Nature Climate Change, 2026
Climate targets require strong commitments from countries to be achieved. Using a multi-model analysis, we show that current net-zero pledges bring the world closer to a well-below 2 °C pathway, but an emission gap remains. Increasing ambition will be crucial: expanding the global coverage of net-zero pledges and speeding up action increases consistency with the Paris Agreement (1.5–2.0 °C range in model mean). However, reaching the 1.5 °C goal without overshoot seems increasingly unlikely. While net-zero pledges help reduce carbon-intensive energy sources, domestic policies aligned with strong climate commitments are needed to reduce the reliance on fossil fuels and increase renewable energy capacity. Our scenarios show that emission reductions are driven by gains in energy efficiency, a strong phase-down of coal use and the electrification of sectors such as transport and heavy industry. It is important to assess the gap between national climate ambitions and the goal of limiting global temperature increase. This multi-model analysis shows that if net-zero pledges are implemented, meeting the 2 °C target is feasible, while increasing ambition and international cooperation is crucial.
Aligning differentiated mitigation capacity with the Paris agreement goals
Elina Brutschin, Christoph Bertram, Luiz Bernardo Baptista, Valentina Bosetti, Vassilis Daioglou, Harmen Sytze de Boer, Laurent Drouet, Florian Fosse, Dimitrios Fragkiadakis, Kostas Fragkiadakis, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Jiang Kejun, Volker Krey, Jarmo Kikstra, Silvia Pianta, Setu Pelz, Keywan Riahi, Oliver Richters, Renato Rodrigues, Roberto Schaeffer, Karl Scheifinger, Diego Silva, Isabela Tagomori, Bas van Ruijven, Detlef van Vuuren, Zoi Vrontisi
Environmental Research Climate, 2025
Regional disparities in mitigation capacity and the slow deployment of certain novel technologies pose significant challenges to achieving ambitious climate goals. We explore how accounting for technological and mitigation capacity considerations alters the regional distribution of mitigation efforts, and how these shifts relate to fairness considerations, all while staying within the scenario space aligned with the Paris Agreement’s goal of holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. To do so, we use a new set of scenarios generated using eight global integrated assessment models (IAMs). These scenarios shift near-term mitigation efforts to regions with greater mitigation capacity by implementing differentiated carbon pricing and emission caps, deviating from the default assumption of a uniform carbon price in global IAMs. We examine the scale of regional emissions reductions and energy system transformations needed, highlighting the implications in the near term. Our findings from the most ambitious scenario, highlight that Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries could reduce total CO 2 emissions as reported in the models by approximately 85% (range: 81%–114%) by 2040 relative to 2020 levels and achieve net-zero CO 2 emissions around 2045—well beyond the 58% reduction (range: 33%–71%) projected under default 2 °C pathways with a globally uniform carbon price. Similarly, China could reduce CO 2 emissions by 78% (range: 55%–83%) by 2040 and reach net-zero by 2050, compared to a 50% reduction (range: 47%–72%) in default scenarios. In this ambitious scenario, other regions could aim to reach net-zero CO 2 by 2070. This redistribution of mitigation efforts involves an accelerated phase-out of fossil fuels—coal, oil, and gas—primarily within the OECD region and, to a certain extent, in China. It also includes an early—but, in line with our feasibility considerations, limited—scale-up of carbon capture and storage capacity, along with significant reductions in final energy demand that go beyond current pledges and ambition levels. Beyond feasibility considerations, the new scenarios assume more mitigation efforts in regions with higher mitigation capacity proxied through institutional capacity, consistent with a capacity-based conception of regional fairness. Integrating certain considerations of feasibility and fairness into scenario assessments enables the development of alternative pathways that are, in some respects, more policy-relevant and help expand the scenario space—thereby responding to some of the recent critiques of global IAMs.
Author Correction:: Feasibility of peak temperature targets in light of institutional constraints (Nature Climate Change, (2024), 14, 9, (954-960), 10.1038/s41558-024-02073-4)
Christoph Bertram, Elina Brutschin, Laurent Drouet, Gunnar Luderer, Bas van Ruijven, Lara Aleluia Reis, Luiz Bernardo Baptista, Harmen-Sytze de Boer, Ryna Cui, Vassilis Daioglou, Florian Fosse, Dimitris Fragkiadakis, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Nate Hultman, Gokul Iyer, Kimon Keramidas, Volker Krey, Elmar Kriegler, Robin D. Lamboll, Rahel Mandaroux, Pedro Rochedo, Joeri Rogelj, Roberto Schaeffer, Diego Silva, Isabela Tagomori, Detlef van Vuuren, Zoi Vrontisi, Keywan Riahi
Nature Climate Change, 2025
In the version of the article initially published, there was a typographical error in the main text and an error in Extended Data Fig. 1. The sentence comparing the social cost of carbon estimates had lacked the lower end of the range of values, and the figure showed means instead of medians of those social cost of carbon estimates, as well as data from an earlier version of ref. 43. The errors have been corrected in the HTML and PDF versions of the article.
Comparing net zero pathways across the Atlantic A model inter-comparison exercise between the Energy Modeling Forum 37 and the European Climate and Energy Modeling Forum
Luis Sarmiento, Johannes Emmerling, Robert Pietzcker, Vassilis Daioglou, Francesco Dalla Longa, Mark M. Dekker, Laurent Drouet, Amir Fattahi, Panagiotis Fragkos, Hauke T. J. Henke, Oliver Fricko, Leonard Göke, Volker Krey, Ellie Lochner, Gunnar Luderer, Nick Macaluso, Kowan T. V. O'Keefe, Kathleen M. Kennedy, Gokul Iyer, Renato Rodrigues, Eric Stewart, William Usher, Bob van der Zwaan, Detlef van Vuuren, Eleftheria Zisarou, Behnam Zakeri
Energy and Climate Change, 2024
Europe and North America account for 32 % of current carbon emissions. Due to distinct legacy systems, energy infrastructure, socioeconomic development, and energy resource endowment, both regions have different policy and technological pathways to reach net zero by the mid-century. Against this background, our paper examines the results from the net zero emission scenarios for Europe and North America that emerged from the collaboration of the European and American Energy Modeling Forums. In our analysis, we perform an inter-comparison of various integrated assessments and bottom-up energy system models. A clear qualitative consensus emerges on five main points. First, Europe and the United States reach net zero targets with electrification, demand-side reductions, and carbon capture and sequestration technologies. Second, the use of carbon capture and sequestration is more predominant in the United States due to a steeper decarbonization schedule. Third, the buildings sector is the easiest to electrify in both regions. Fourth, the industrial sector is the hardest to electrify in the United States and transportation in Europe. Fifth, in both regions, the transition in the energy mix is driven by the substitution of coal and natural gas with solar and wind, but to a different extent.
Enhanced agricultural carbon sinks provide benefits for farmers and the climate
Stefan Frank, Andrey Lessa Derci Augustynczik, Petr Havlík, Esther Boere, Tatiana Ermolieva, Oliver Fricko, Fulvio Di Fulvio, Mykola Gusti, Tamas Krisztin, Pekka Lauri, Amanda Palazzo, Michael Wögerer
Nature Food, 2024
Carbon sequestration on agricultural land, albeit long-time neglected, offers substantial mitigation potential. Here we project, using an economic land-use model, that these options offer cumulative mitigation potentials comparable to afforestation by 2050 at 160 USD2022 tCO2 equivalent (tCO2e−1), with most of it located in the Global South. Carbon sequestration on agricultural land could provide producers around the world with additional revenues of up to 375 billion USD2022 at 160 USD2022 tCO2e−1 and allow achievement of net-zero emissions in the agriculture, forestry and other land-use sectors by 2050 already at economic costs of around 80–120 USD2022 tCO2e−1. This would, in turn, decrease economy-wide mitigation costs and increase gross domestic product (+0.6%) by the mid-century in 1.5 °C no-overshoot climate stabilization scenarios compared with mitigation scenarios that do not consider these options. Unlocking these potentials requires the deployment of highly efficient institutions and monitoring systems over the next 5 years across the whole world, including sub-Saharan Africa, where the largest mitigation potential exists.
Feasibility of peak temperature targets in light of institutional constraints
Christoph Bertram, Elina Brutschin, Laurent Drouet, Gunnar Luderer, Bas van Ruijven, Lara Aleluia Reis, Luiz Bernardo Baptista, Harmen-Sytze de Boer, Ryna Cui, Vassilis Daioglou, Florian Fosse, Dimitris Fragkiadakis, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Nate Hultman, Gokul Iyer, Kimon Keramidas, Volker Krey, Elmar Kriegler, Robin D. Lamboll, Rahel Mandaroux, Pedro Rochedo, Joeri Rogelj, Roberto Schaeffer, Diego Silva, Isabela Tagomori, Detlef van Vuuren, Zoi Vrontisi, Keywan Riahi
Nature Climate Change, 2024
Despite faster-than-expected progress in clean energy technology deployment, global annual CO2 emissions have increased from 2020 to 2023. The feasibility of limiting warming to 1.5 °C is therefore questioned. Here we present a model intercomparison study that accounts for emissions trends until 2023 and compares cost-effective scenarios to alternative scenarios with institutional, geophysical and technological feasibility constraints and enablers informed by previous literature. Our results show that the most ambitious mitigation trajectories with updated climate information still manage to limit peak warming to below 1.6 °C (‘low overshoot’) with around 50% likelihood. However, feasibility constraints, especially in the institutional dimension, decrease this maximum likelihood considerably to 5–45%. Accelerated energy demand transformation can reduce costs for staying below 2 °C but have only a limited impact on further increasing the likelihood of limiting warming to 1.6 °C. Our study helps to establish a new benchmark of mitigation scenarios that goes beyond the dominant cost-effective scenario design.
Integration of energy system and computable general equilibrium models: An approach complementing energy and economic representations for mitigation analysis
Osamu Nishiura, Volker Krey, Oliver Fricko, Bas van Ruijven, Shinichiro Fujimori
Energy, 2024
Energy system and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models play vital roles in climate change mitigation studies. These models have advantages and disadvantages, and attempts have been made to integrate them. This study aimed to describe the method for integrating energy system and CGE models and demonstrate the new model that captures the strengths of both models. The method developed in this study ensured the detailed convergence of the energy system by exchanging the results iteratively. We demonstrated the model integration by adopting the method to MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM and AIM/Hub and estimating a mitigation scenario that limits the temperature rise to below 2 °C under the middle-of-the-road socioeconomic projection in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. As a result of the integration, the index showing the difference between the two models proposed in this study decreased from 1.0 to 0.066. Therefore, we confirmed that these models estimated consistent scenarios. The diagnostic indicators showed that compared to its counterpart CGE model, the newly-developed model was characterized by a higher contribution of demand-side reductions, a lesser alteration in the primary energy supply composition, and lower abatement costs. Given the convergence and advantages of the integrated framework, the proposed method is useful for further application to mitigation studies.
MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM nexus module: integrating water sector and climate impacts
Muhammad Awais, Adriano Vinca, Edward Byers, Stefan Frank, Oliver Fricko, Esther Boere, Peter Burek, Miguel Poblete Cazenave, Paul Natsuo Kishimoto, Alessio Mastrucci, Yusuke Satoh, Amanda Palazzo, Madeleine McPherson, Keywan Riahi, Volker Krey
Geoscientific Model Development, 2024
The integrated assessment model (IAM) MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM developed by IIASA is widely used to analyze global change and socioeconomic development scenarios within energy and land systems across different scales. However, to date, the representation of impacts from climate effects and water systems in the IAM has been limited. We present a new nexus module for MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM that improves the representation of climate impacts and enables the analysis of interactions between population, economic growth, energy, land, and water resources in a dynamic system. The module uses a spatially resolved representation of water systems to retain hydrological information without compromising computational feasibility. It maps simplified water availability and key infrastructure assumptions with the energy and land systems. The results of this study inform on the transformation pathways required under climate change impacts and mitigation scenarios. The pathways include multi-sectoral indicators highlighting the importance of water as a constraint in energy and land-use decisions and the implications of global responses to limited water availability from different sources, suggesting possible shifts in the energy and land sectors.
Identifying energy model fingerprints in mitigation scenarios
Mark M. Dekker, Vassilis Daioglou, Robert Pietzcker, Renato Rodrigues, Harmen-Sytze de Boer, Francesco Dalla Longa, Laurent Drouet, Johannes Emmerling, Amir Fattahi, Theofano Fotiou, Panagiotis Fragkos, Oliver Fricko, Ema Gusheva, Mathijs Harmsen, Daniel Huppmann, Maria Kannavou, Volker Krey, Francesco Lombardi, Gunnar Luderer, Stefan Pfenninger, Ioannis Tsiropoulos, Behnam Zakeri, Bob van der Zwaan, Will Usher, Detlef van Vuuren
Nature Energy, 2023
Fairness and feasibility in deep mitigation pathways with novel carbon dioxide removal considering institutional capacity to mitigate
Matthew J Gidden, Elina Brutschin, Gaurav Ganti, Gamze Unlu, Behnam Zakeri, Oliver Fricko, Benjamin Mitterrutzner, Francesco Lovat, Keywan Riahi
Environmental Research Letters, 2023
Author Correction: Global roll-out of comprehensive policy measures may aid in bridging emissions gap (Nature Communications, (2021), 12, 1, (6419), 10.1038/s41467-021-26595-z)
Heleen L. van Soest, Lara Aleluia Reis, Luiz Bernardo Baptista, Christoph Bertram, Jacques Després, Laurent Drouet, Michel den Elzen, Panagiotis Fragkos, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Neil Grant, Mathijs Harmsen, Gokul Iyer, Kimon Keramidas, Alexandre C. Köberle, Elmar Kriegler, Aman Malik, Shivika Mittal, Ken Oshiro, Keywan Riahi, Mark Roelfsema, Bas van Ruijven, Roberto Schaeffer, Diego Silva Herran, Massimo Tavoni, Gamze Unlu, Toon Vandyck, Detlef P. van Vuuren
Nature Communications, 2022
Climate mitigation scenarios with persistent COVID-19-related energy demand changes
Jarmo S. Kikstra, Adriano Vinca, Francesco Lovat, Benigna Boza-Kiss, Bas van Ruijven, Charlie Wilson, Joeri Rogelj, Behnam Zakeri, Oliver Fricko, Keywan Riahi
Nature Energy, 2021
Net zero-emission pathways reduce the physical and economic risks of climate change
Laurent Drouet, Valentina Bosetti, Simone A. Padoan, Lara Aleluia Reis, Christoph Bertram, Francesco Dalla Longa, Jacques Després, Johannes Emmerling, Florian Fosse, Kostas Fragkiadakis, Stefan Frank, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Mathijs Harmsen, Volker Krey, Ken Oshiro, Larissa P. Nogueira, Leonidas Paroussos, Franziska Piontek, Keywan Riahi, Pedro R. R. Rochedo, Roberto Schaeffer, Jun’ya Takakura, Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst, Bob van der Zwaan, Detlef van Vuuren, Zoi Vrontisi, Matthias Weitzel, Behnam Zakeri, Massimo Tavoni
Nature Climate Change, 2021
Global roll-out of comprehensive policy measures may aid in bridging emissions gap
Heleen L. van Soest, Lara Aleluia Reis, Luiz Bernardo Baptista, Christoph Bertram, Jacques Després, Laurent Drouet, Michel den Elzen, Panagiotis Fragkos, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Neil Grant, Mathijs Harmsen, Gokul Iyer, Kimon Keramidas, Alexandre C. Köberle, Elmar Kriegler, Aman Malik, Shivika Mittal, Ken Oshiro, Keywan Riahi, Mark Roelfsema, Bas van Ruijven, Roberto Schaeffer, Diego Silva Herran, Massimo Tavoni, Gamze Unlu, Toon Vandyck, Detlef P. van Vuuren
Nature Communications, 2021
Land-based measures to mitigate climate change: Potential and feasibility by country
Stephanie Roe, Charlotte Streck, Robert Beach, Jonah Busch, Melissa Chapman, Vassilis Daioglou, Andre Deppermann, Jonathan Doelman, Jeremy Emmet‐Booth, Jens Engelmann, Oliver Fricko, Chad Frischmann, Jason Funk, Giacomo Grassi, Bronson Griscom, Petr Havlik, Steef Hanssen, Florian Humpenöder, David Landholm, Guy Lomax, Johannes Lehmann, Leah Mesnildrey, Gert‐Jan Nabuurs, Alexander Popp, Charlotte Rivard, Jonathan Sanderman, Brent Sohngen, Pete Smith, Elke Stehfest, Dominic Woolf, Deborah Lawrence
Global Change Biology, 2021
Cost and attainability of meeting stringent climate targets without overshoot
Keywan Riahi, Christoph Bertram, Daniel Huppmann, Joeri Rogelj, Valentina Bosetti, Anique-Marie Cabardos, Andre Deppermann, Laurent Drouet, Stefan Frank, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Mathijs Harmsen, Tomoko Hasegawa, Volker Krey, Gunnar Luderer, Leonidas Paroussos, Roberto Schaeffer, Matthias Weitzel, Bob van der Zwaan, Zoi Vrontisi, Francesco Dalla Longa, Jacques Després, Florian Fosse, Kostas Fragkiadakis, Mykola Gusti, Florian Humpenöder, Kimon Keramidas, Paul Kishimoto, Elmar Kriegler, Malte Meinshausen, Larissa P. Nogueira, Ken Oshiro, Alexander Popp, Pedro R. R. Rochedo, Gamze Ünlü, Bas van Ruijven, Junya Takakura, Massimo Tavoni, Detlef van Vuuren, Behnam Zakeri
Nature Climate Change, 2021
Energy system developments and investments in the decisive decade for the Paris Agreement goals
Christoph Bertram, Keywan Riahi, Jérôme Hilaire, Valentina Bosetti, Laurent Drouet, Oliver Fricko, Aman Malik, Larissa Pupo Nogueira, Bob van der Zwaan, Bas van Ruijven, Detlef van Vuuren, Matthias Weitzel, Francesco Dalla Longa, Harmen-Sytze de Boer, Johannes Emmerling, Florian Fosse, Kostas Fragkiadakis, Mathijs Harmsen, Kimon Keramidas, Paul Natsuo Kishimoto, Elmar Kriegler, Volker Krey, Leonidas Paroussos, Deger Saygin, Zoi Vrontisi, Gunnar Luderer
Environmental Research Letters, 2021
Erratum: Air quality and health implications of 1.5 °C-2 °C climate pathways under considerations of ageing population: A multi-model scenario analysis (Environmental Research Letters (2021) 16 (045005) DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abdf0b)
Peter Rafaj, Gregor Kiesewetter, Volker Krey, Wolfgang Schoepp, Christoph Bertram, Laurent Drouet, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Mathijs Harmsen, Jérôme Hilaire, Daniel Huppmann, Zbigniew Klimont, Peter Kolp, Lara Aleluia Reis, Detlef van Vuuren
Environmental Research Letters, 2021
Integrated assessment model diagnostics: Key indicators and model evolution
Mathijs Harmsen, Elmar Kriegler, Detlef P van Vuuren, Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst, Gunnar Luderer, Ryna Cui, Olivier Dessens, Laurent Drouet, Johannes Emmerling, Jennifer Faye Morris, Florian Fosse, Dimitris Fragkiadakis, Kostas Fragkiadakis, Panagiotis Fragkos, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, David Gernaat, Céline Guivarch, Gokul Iyer, Panagiotis Karkatsoulis, Ilkka Keppo, Kimon Keramidas, Alexandre Köberle, Peter Kolp, Volker Krey, Christoph Krüger, Florian Leblanc, Shivika Mittal, Sergey Paltsev, Pedro Rochedo, Bas J van Ruijven, Ronald D Sands, Fuminori Sano, Jessica Strefler, Eveline Vasquez Arroyo, Kenichi Wada, Behnam Zakeri
Environmental Research Letters, 2021
Air quality and health implications of 1.5 °c-2 °c climate pathways under considerations of ageing population: A multi-model scenario analysis
Peter Rafaj, Gregor Kiesewetter, Volker Krey, Wolfgang Schoepp, Christoph Bertram, Laurent Drouet, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Mathijs Harmsen, Jérôme Hilaire, Daniel Huppmann, Zbigniew Klimont, Peter Kolp, Lara Aleluia Reis, Detlef van Vuuren
Environmental Research Letters, 2021
pyam: Analysis and visualisation of integrated assessment and macro-energy scenarios
Daniel Huppmann, Matthew J. Gidden, Zebedee Nicholls, Jonas Hörsch, Robin Lamboll, Paul N. Kishimoto, Thorsten Burandt, Oliver Fricko, Edward Byers, Jarmo Kikstra, Maarten Brinkerink, Maik Budzinski, Florian Maczek, Sebastian Zwickl-Bernhard, Lara Welder, Erik Francisco Álvarez Quispe, Christopher J. Smith
Open Research Europe, 2021
Taking some heat off the NDCs? The limited potential of additional short-lived climate forcers’ mitigation
Mathijs Harmsen, Oliver Fricko, Jérôme Hilaire, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Laurent Drouet, Olivier Durand-Lasserve, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kimon Keramidas, Zbigniew Klimont, Gunnar Luderer, Lara Aleluia Reis, Keywan Riahi, Fuminori Sano, Steven J. Smith
Climatic Change, 2020
The role of methane in future climate strategies: mitigation potentials and climate impacts
Mathijs Harmsen, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Jean Chateau, Olivier Durand-Lasserve, Laurent Drouet, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, David E. H. J. Gernaat, Tatsuya Hanaoka, Jérôme Hilaire, Kimon Keramidas, Gunnar Luderer, Maria Cecilia P. Moura, Fuminori Sano, Steven J. Smith, Kenichi Wada
Climatic Change, 2020
Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis
Steven J Smith, Jean Chateau, Kalyn Dorheim, Laurent Drouet, Olivier Durand-Lasserve, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Tatsuya Hanaoka, Mathijs Harmsen, Jérôme Hilaire, Kimon Keramidas, Zbigniew Klimont, Gunnar Luderer, Maria Cecilia P. Moura, Keywan Riahi, Joeri Rogelj, Fuminori Sano, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Kenichi Wada
Climatic Change, 2020
Global energy sector emission reductions and bioenergy use: overview of the bioenergy demand phase of the EMF-33 model comparison
Nico Bauer, Steven K. Rose, Shinichiro Fujimori, Detlef P. van Vuuren, John Weyant, Marshall Wise, Yiyun Cui, Vassilis Daioglou, Matthew J. Gidden, Etsushi Kato, Alban Kitous, Florian Leblanc, Ronald Sands, Fuminori Sano, Jessica Strefler, Junichi Tsutsui, Ruben Bibas, Oliver Fricko, Tomoko Hasegawa, David Klein, Atsushi Kurosawa, Silvana Mima, Matteo Muratori
Climatic Change, 2020
Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement
Mark Roelfsema, Heleen L. van Soest, Mathijs Harmsen, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Christoph Bertram, Michel den Elzen, Niklas Höhne, Gabriela Iacobuta, Volker Krey, Elmar Kriegler, Gunnar Luderer, Keywan Riahi, Falko Ueckerdt, Jacques Després, Laurent Drouet, Johannes Emmerling, Stefan Frank, Oliver Fricko, Matthew Gidden, Florian Humpenöder, Daniel Huppmann, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kostas Fragkiadakis, Keii Gi, Kimon Keramidas, Alexandre C. Köberle, Lara Aleluia Reis, Pedro Rochedo, Roberto Schaeffer, Ken Oshiro, Zoi Vrontisi, Wenying Chen, Gokul C. Iyer, Jae Edmonds, Maria Kannavou, Kejun Jiang, Ritu Mathur, George Safonov, Saritha Sudharmma Vishwanathan
Nature Communications, 2020
Early retirement of power plants in climate mitigation scenarios
Robert Fofrich, Dan Tong, Katherine Calvin, Harmen Sytze De Boer, Johannes Emmerling, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Gunnar Luderer, Joeri Rogelj, Steven J Davis
Environmental Research Letters, 2020
Decarbonization pathways and energy investment needs for developing Asia in line with ‘well below’ 2°C
Wenji Zhou, David L. McCollum, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Matthew Gidden, Fei Guo, Tomoko Hasegawa, Han Huang, Daniel Huppmann, Volker Krey, Changyi Liu, Simon Parkinson, Keywan Riahi, Peter Rafaj, Wolfgang Schoepp, Fang Yang, Yuanbing Zhou
Climate Policy, 2020
Environmental co-benefits and adverse side-effects of alternative power sector decarbonization strategies
Gunnar Luderer, Michaja Pehl, Anders Arvesen, Thomas Gibon, Benjamin L. Bodirsky, Harmen Sytze de Boer, Oliver Fricko, Mohamad Hejazi, Florian Humpenöder, Gokul Iyer, Silvana Mima, Ioanna Mouratiadou, Robert C. Pietzcker, Alexander Popp, Maarten van den Berg, Detlef van Vuuren, Edgar G. Hertwich
Nature Communications, 2019
Contribution of the land sector to a 1.5 °C world
Stephanie Roe, Charlotte Streck, Michael Obersteiner, Stefan Frank, Bronson Griscom, Laurent Drouet, Oliver Fricko, Mykola Gusti, Nancy Harris, Tomoko Hasegawa, Zeke Hausfather, Petr Havlík, Jo House, Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Alexander Popp, María José Sanz Sánchez, Jonathan Sanderman, Pete Smith, Elke Stehfest, Deborah Lawrence
Nature Climate Change, 2019
A comparison of low carbon investment needs between China and Europe in stringent climate policy scenarios
Wenji Zhou, David L McCollum, Oliver Fricko, Matthew Gidden, Daniel Huppmann, Volker Krey, Keywan Riahi
Environmental Research Letters, 2019
A multi-model assessment of food security implications of climate change mitigation
Shinichiro Fujimori, Tomoko Hasegawa, Volker Krey, Keywan Riahi, Christoph Bertram, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Valentina Bosetti, Jessica Callen, Jacques Després, Jonathan Doelman, Laurent Drouet, Johannes Emmerling, Stefan Frank, Oliver Fricko, Petr Havlik, Florian Humpenöder, Jason F. L. Koopman, Hans van Meijl, Yuki Ochi, Alexander Popp, Andreas Schmitz, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Detlef van Vuuren
Nature Sustainability, 2019
Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: A dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century
Matthew J. Gidden, Keywan Riahi, Steven J. Smith, Shinichiro Fujimori, Gunnar Luderer, Elmar Kriegler, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Maarten van den Berg, Leyang Feng, David Klein, Katherine Calvin, Jonathan C. Doelman, Stefan Frank, Oliver Fricko, Mathijs Harmsen, Tomoko Hasegawa, Petr Havlik, Jérôme Hilaire, Rachel Hoesly, Jill Horing, Alexander Popp, Elke Stehfest, Kiyoshi Takahashi
Geoscientific Model Development, 2019
The MESSAGEix Integrated Assessment Model and the ix modeling platform (ixmp): An open framework for integrated and cross-cutting analysis of energy, climate, the environment, and sustainable development
Daniel Huppmann, Matthew Gidden, Oliver Fricko, Peter Kolp, Clara Orthofer, Michael Pimmer, Nikolay Kushin, Adriano Vinca, Alessio Mastrucci, Keywan Riahi, Volker Krey
Environmental Modelling and Software, 2019
Balancing clean water-climate change mitigation trade-offs
Simon Parkinson, Volker Krey, Daniel Huppmann, Taher Kahil, David McCollum, Oliver Fricko, Edward Byers, Matthew J Gidden, Beatriz Mayor, Zarrar Khan, Catherine Raptis, Narasimha D Rao, Nils Johnson, Yoshihide Wada, Ned Djilali, Keywan Riahi
Environmental Research Letters, 2019
Erratum to: Energy investment needs for fulfilling the Paris Agreement and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (Nature Energy, (2018), 3, 7, (589-599), 10.1038/s41560-018-0179-z)
David L. McCollum, Wenji Zhou, Christoph Bertram, Harmen-Sytze de Boer, Valentina Bosetti, Sebastian Busch, Jacques Després, Laurent Drouet, Johannes Emmerling, Marianne Fay, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Matthew Gidden, Mathijs Harmsen, Daniel Huppmann, Gokul Iyer, Volker Krey, Elmar Kriegler, Claire Nicolas, Shonali Pachauri, Simon Parkinson, Miguel Poblete-Cazenave, Peter Rafaj, Narasimha Rao, Julie Rozenberg, Andreas Schmitz, Wolfgang Schoepp, Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi
Nature Energy, 2018
Residual fossil CO2 emissions in 1.5-2 °c pathways
Gunnar Luderer, Zoi Vrontisi, Christoph Bertram, Oreane Y. Edelenbosch, Robert C. Pietzcker, Joeri Rogelj, Harmen Sytze De Boer, Laurent Drouet, Johannes Emmerling, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Petr Havlík, Gokul Iyer, Kimon Keramidas, Alban Kitous, Michaja Pehl, Volker Krey, Keywan Riahi, Bert Saveyn, Massimo Tavoni, Detlef P. Van Vuuren, Elmar Kriegler
Nature Climate Change, 2018
Energy investment needs for fulfilling the Paris Agreement and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals
David L. McCollum, Wenji Zhou, Christoph Bertram, Harmen-Sytze de Boer, Valentina Bosetti, Sebastian Busch, Jacques Després, Laurent Drouet, Johannes Emmerling, Marianne Fay, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Matthew Gidden, Mathijs Harmsen, Daniel Huppmann, Gokul Iyer, Volker Krey, Elmar Kriegler, Claire Nicolas, Shonali Pachauri, Simon Parkinson, Miguel Poblete-Cazenave, Peter Rafaj, Narasimha Rao, Julie Rozenberg, Andreas Schmitz, Wolfgang Schoepp, Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi
Nature Energy, 2018
A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5 °c target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies
Arnulf Grubler, Charlie Wilson, Nuno Bento, Benigna Boza-Kiss, Volker Krey, David L. McCollum, Narasimha D. Rao, Keywan Riahi, Joeri Rogelj, Simon De Stercke, Jonathan Cullen, Stefan Frank, Oliver Fricko, Fei Guo, Matt Gidden, Petr Havlík, Daniel Huppmann, Gregor Kiesewetter, Peter Rafaj, Wolfgang Schoepp, Hugo Valin
Nature Energy, 2018
Enhancing global climate policy ambition towards a 1.5 °c stabilization: A short-term multi-model assessment
Zoi Vrontisi, Gunnar Luderer, Bert Saveyn, Kimon Keramidas, Aleluia Reis Lara, Lavinia Baumstark, Christoph Bertram, Harmen Sytze de Boer, Laurent Drouet, Kostas Fragkiadakis, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Celine Guivarch, Alban Kitous, Volker Krey, Elmar Kriegler, Eoin Ó Broin, Leonidas Paroussos, Detlef van Vuuren
Environmental Research Letters, 2018
Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °c
Joeri Rogelj, Alexander Popp, Katherine V. Calvin, Gunnar Luderer, Johannes Emmerling, David Gernaat, Shinichiro Fujimori, Jessica Strefler, Tomoko Hasegawa, Giacomo Marangoni, Volker Krey, Elmar Kriegler, Keywan Riahi, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Jonathan Doelman, Laurent Drouet, Jae Edmonds, Oliver Fricko, Mathijs Harmsen, Petr Havlík, Florian Humpenöder, Elke Stehfest, Massimo Tavoni
Nature Climate Change, 2018
Understanding the origin of Paris Agreement emission uncertainties
Joeri Rogelj, Oliver Fricko, Malte Meinshausen, Volker Krey, Johanna J. J. Zilliacus, Keywan Riahi
Nature Communications, 2017
Sensitivity of projected long-term CO 2 emissions across the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
G. Marangoni, M. Tavoni, V. Bosetti, E. Borgonovo, P. Capros, O. Fricko, D. E. H. J. Gernaat, C. Guivarch, P. Havlik, D. Huppmann, N. Johnson, P. Karkatsoulis, I. Keppo, V. Krey, E. Ó Broin, J. Price, D. P. van Vuuren
Nature Climate Change, 2017
Assessing the feasibility of global long-term mitigation scenarios
Ajay Gambhir, Laurent Drouet, David McCollum, Tamaryn Napp, Dan Bernie, Adam Hawkes, Oliver Fricko, Petr Havlik, Keywan Riahi, Valentina Bosetti, Jason Lowe
Energies, 2017
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture without compromising food security?
Stefan Frank, Petr Havlík, Jean-François Soussana, Antoine Levesque, Hugo Valin, Eva Wollenberg, Ulrich Kleinwechter, Oliver Fricko, Mykola Gusti, Mario Herrero, Pete Smith, Tomoko Hasegawa, Florian Kraxner, Michael Obersteiner
Environmental Research Letters, 2017
The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century
Oliver Fricko, Petr Havlik, Joeri Rogelj, Zbigniew Klimont, Mykola Gusti, Nils Johnson, Peter Kolp, Manfred Strubegger, Hugo Valin, Markus Amann, Tatiana Ermolieva, Nicklas Forsell, Mario Herrero, Chris Heyes, Georg Kindermann, Volker Krey, David L. McCollum, Michael Obersteiner, Shonali Pachauri, Shilpa Rao, Erwin Schmid, Wolfgang Schoepp, Keywan Riahi
Global Environmental Change, 2017
Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways
Alexander Popp, Katherine Calvin, Shinichiro Fujimori, Petr Havlik, Florian Humpenöder, Elke Stehfest, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Jonathan C. Doelmann, Mykola Gusti, Tomoko Hasegawa, Page Kyle, Michael Obersteiner, Andrzej Tabeau, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Hugo Valin, Stephanie Waldhoff, Isabelle Weindl, Marshall Wise, Elmar Kriegler, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Oliver Fricko, Keywan Riahi, Detlef P. van Vuuren
Global Environmental Change, 2017
Future air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways
Shilpa Rao, Zbigniew Klimont, Steven J. Smith, Rita Van Dingenen, Frank Dentener, Lex Bouwman, Keywan Riahi, Markus Amann, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Lara Aleluia Reis, Katherine Calvin, Laurent Drouet, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, David Gernaat, Petr Havlik, Mathijs Harmsen, Tomoko Hasegawa, Chris Heyes, Jérôme Hilaire, Gunnar Luderer, Toshihiko Masui, Elke Stehfest, Jessica Strefler, Sietske van der Sluis, Massimo Tavoni
Global Environmental Change, 2017
Shared Socio-Economic Pathways of the Energy Sector – Quantifying the Narratives
Nico Bauer, Katherine Calvin, Johannes Emmerling, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Jérôme Hilaire, Jiyong Eom, Volker Krey, Elmar Kriegler, Ioanna Mouratiadou, Harmen Sytze de Boer, Maarten van den Berg, Samuel Carrara, Vassilis Daioglou, Laurent Drouet, James E. Edmonds, David Gernaat, Petr Havlik, Nils Johnson, David Klein, Page Kyle, Giacomo Marangoni, Toshihiko Masui, Robert C. Pietzcker, Manfred Strubegger, Marshall Wise, Keywan Riahi, Detlef P. van Vuuren
Global Environmental Change, 2017
The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview
Keywan Riahi, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Elmar Kriegler, Jae Edmonds, Brian C. O’Neill, Shinichiro Fujimori, Nico Bauer, Katherine Calvin, Rob Dellink, Oliver Fricko, Wolfgang Lutz, Alexander Popp, Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, Samir KC, Marian Leimbach, Leiwen Jiang, Tom Kram, Shilpa Rao, Johannes Emmerling, Kristie Ebi, Tomoko Hasegawa, Petr Havlik, Florian Humpenöder, Lara Aleluia Da Silva, Steve Smith, Elke Stehfest, Valentina Bosetti, Jiyong Eom, David Gernaat, Toshihiko Masui, Joeri Rogelj, Jessica Strefler, Laurent Drouet, Volker Krey, Gunnar Luderer, Mathijs Harmsen, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Lavinia Baumstark, Jonathan C. Doelman, Mikiko Kainuma, Zbigniew Klimont, Giacomo Marangoni, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Michael Obersteiner, Andrzej Tabeau, Massimo Tavoni
Global Environmental Change, 2017
Climate and human development impacts on municipal water demand: A spatially-explicit global modeling framework
Simon C. Parkinson, Nils Johnson, Narasimha D. Rao, Bryan Jones, Michelle T.H. van Vliet, Oliver Fricko, Ned Djilali, Keywan Riahi, Martina Flörke
Environmental Modelling and Software, 2016
Comparison and interactions between the long-term pursuit of energy independence and climate policies
Jessica Jewell, Vadim Vinichenko, David McCollum, Nico Bauer, Keywan Riahi, Tino Aboumahboub, Oliver Fricko, Mathijs Harmsen, Tom Kober, Volker Krey, Giacomo Marangoni, Massimo Tavoni, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Bob van der Zwaan, Aleh Cherp
Nature Energy, 2016
Energy sector water use implications of a 2°C climate policy
Oliver Fricko, Simon C Parkinson, Nils Johnson, Manfred Strubegger, Michelle TH van Vliet, Keywan Riahi
Environmental Research Letters, 2016
Impacts of Groundwater Constraints on Saudi Arabia's Low-Carbon Electricity Supply Strategy
Simon C. Parkinson, Ned Djilali, Volker Krey, Oliver Fricko, Nils Johnson, Zarrar Khan, Khaled Sedraoui, Abdulrahman H. Almasoud
Environmental Science and Technology, 2016
Impacts of global climate change mitigation scenarios on forests and harvesting in Sweden
Eva-Maria Nordström, Nicklas Forsell, Anders Lundström, Anu Korosuo, Johan Bergh, Petr Havlík, Florian Kraxner, Stefan Frank, Oliver Fricko, Tomas Lundmark, Annika Nordin
Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 2016

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