CHP, District heating, energy systems, electricity market, machine learning, Nordic power market
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Scopus Publications
Scopus Publications
The role of natural gas in setting electricity prices in Europe Behnam Zakeri, Iain Staffell, Paul E. Dodds, Michael Grubb, Paul Ekins, Jaakko Jääskeläinen, Samuel Cross, Kristo Helin, Giorgio Castagneto Gissey Energy Reports, 2023 The EU energy and climate policy revolves around enhancing energy security and affordability, while reducing the environmental impacts of energy use. The European energy transition has been at the centre of debate following the post-pandemic surge in power prices in 2021 and the energy crisis following the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war. Understanding the extent to which electricity prices depend on fossil fuel prices (specifically natural gas) is key to guiding the future of energy policy in Europe. To this end, we quantify the role of fossil-fuelled vs. low-carbon electricity generation in setting wholesale electricity prices in each EU-27 country plus Great Britain (GB) and Norway during 2015-2021. We apply econometric analysis and use sub/hourly power system data to estimate the marginal share of each electricity generation type. The results show that fossil fuel-based power plants set electricity prices in Europe at approximately 58% of the time (natural gas 39%) while generating only 34% of electricity (natural gas 18%) a year. The energy transition has made natural gas the main electricity price setter in Europe, with gas determining electricity prices for more than 80% of the hours in 2021 in several countries such as Belgium, GB, Greece, Italy, and the Netherlands. Hence, Europe’s electricity markets are highly exposed to the geopolitical risk of gas supply and natural gas price volatility, and the economic risk of currency exchange.
Impacts of apartment building energy renovation policies on Finnish combined heat and power production Kristo Helin, Janne Hirvonen, Sanna Syri, Juhani Heljo International Conference on the European Energy Market Eem, 2019 The European work against climate change requires decreasing the carbon emissions of the energy system. Apartment buildings consume a considerable amount of energy, especially for heating. Typically, research on energy renovation measures to decrease this consumption use current (or similar) energy system data for emission estimates. This approach undervalues the dynamic nature of energy production technologies, given the lifetime of the renovation investments. Especially in Finland, the dynamic is strong: District heating (DH) is common, and largely supplied by combined heat and power. Due to this electricity-DH connection, electricity and DH consumption profiles of buildings have a large potential to affect the technologies used for energy production, as well as the emissions released. In this paper, we show that the pathway taken in energy renovations of Finnish apartment buildings until 2050 will have an impact on the energy system of that time, as visioned in our scenario.
Energy security impacts of decreasing CHP capacity in Finland Kristo Helin, Jaakko Jaaskelaincn, Sanna Syri International Conference on the European Energy Market Eem, 2018 Finland, as part of the Nordic electricity market, is experiencing an era of low electricity market prices. This has practically removed all condensing power capacity from the electricity market. The Finnish combined heat and power (CHP) capacity is facing a similar trend. Some industry experts argue that the described trend could induce serious energy security issues. In this paper, we analyse a scenario where the average electricity spot price remains under 30 /MWh throughout the 2020s and energy use of coal is phased out by 2030, resulting in a notable decrease in CHP capacity. We assess the energy security implications in the scenario on a national and multi-national level. Additionally, we present a case study of Helsinki to give examples of the identified energy security issues on a city level. The results provide policy makers insight in decision making regarding the operating environment of CHP production in Finland.
Improving district heat sustainability and competitiveness with heat pumps in the future Nordic energy system Kristo Helin, Sanna Syri, Behnam Zakeri Energy Procedia, 2018 District heating (DH) in Nordic countries largely relies on efficient large-scale combined heat and power (CHP) production. The currently low electricity market price has diminished the economic competitiveness of CHP production. Production of DH increasingly happens in thermal heat-only boilers, increasing long-term environmental impacts. An alternative is the use of large-scale heat pumps (LHPs). Utilization of LHPs in hours of low electricity price could be economically advantageous to producers, reduce carbon emissions from burning fuels, and aid in balancing the production and consumption of electricity in a future energy system where electricity production from variable renewable energy is increasing rapidly.
Is district heating combined heat and power at risk in the Nordic area?-An electricity market perspective Kristo Helin, Behnam Zakeri, Sanna Syri Energies, 2018 The Nordic power market has exceptionally low carbon emissions. Energy efficient combined heat and power (CHP) plays an important role in the market, and also produces a large share of Nordic district heating (DH) energy. In future Nordic energy systems, DH CHP is often seen as vital for flexibility in electricity production. However, CHP electricity production may not be profitable in the future Nordic market. Even currently, the prevailing trend is for CHP plants to be replaced with heat-only boilers in DH production. In this work, we aim to describe the future utilisation of CHP in the Nordic area. We use an electricity market simulation model to examine the development of the Nordic electricity market until 2030. We examine one main projection of electricity production capacity changes, and based on it we assess scenarios with different electricity demands and CO 2 emission prices. Differences between scenarios are notable: For example, the stalling or increasing of electricity demand from the 2014 level can mean a difference of 15 €/MWh in the average market price of electricity in 2020. The results of this paper underline the importance of considering several alternative future paths of electricity production and consumption when designing new energy policies.
Economic potential of industrial demand side management in pulp and paper industry Kristo Helin, Anssi Käki, Behnam Zakeri, Risto Lahdelma, Sanna Syri Energy, 2017 Increasing levels of variable renewable energy require additional flexible resources in the global energy system. In countries with energy-intensive industries, flexibility may be increased through industrial demand side management (IDSM). In most studies, the potential of IDSM is estimated from a technical or theoretical viewpoint. However, IDSM capacity is only utilized if the industry finds it profitable, and thus the economic potential should also be assessed. The focus of this paper is on the intra-day IDSM potential of a paper mill site that is active in the Nordic power market. An optimization model is built to estimate the costs that occur when the paper mill executes regulating power bids, if the original production schedule has been optimized against a spot price forecast. The costs are estimated for different sizes of bids and a marginal cost curve is provided for pricing them. Using this marginal cost curve, the market potential of the case mill site is assessed. It is found that this potential is greatly influenced by the costs of executing regulating power bids. The results indicate that transmission system operators and policy makers should account for economic factors when assessing the potential of market based IDSM.
