Job loss and births. A couple-level study of Norwegian plant closures Rishabh Tyagi, Elisa Brini, Daniele Vignoli Social Science Research, 2026 In dual-earner settings, whether fertility responses to job loss reflect gendered mechanisms is not theoretically unambiguous. This paper examines how job loss due to plant closures – a plausibly exogenous employment shock – affects couples' fertility in Norway. Using Norwegian register data (2005-2017) linked to private-sector employment records (2005-2014), we estimate discrete-time event history models of first- and second-birth transitions within three years after a plant-closure job loss experienced by either partner. Norway is a theoretically relevant case because welfare-state buffering limits short-run income losses, and the Great Recession hit relatively mildly, helping explore the role of uncertainty in shaping fertility responses to job loss. Results indicate that job loss disrupts childbirth in gendered and stratified ways. Female partner's job loss in a couple reduces entry into parenthood, and this effect persists net of household income at the time of job loss. Male partner job loss in a couple reduces progression to a second child and is partly mediated by income, and is strongest after the Great Recession. Moreover, couples with fewer resources are more exposed to fertility penalties, especially for second births following male displacement. The limited role of income suggests that fertility responses to job loss are not reducible to short-run financial constraints. Instead, they reflect how employment structures couples' life-course planning and perceived readiness for parenthood. That female job loss deters entry into parenthood while male job loss deters expansion implies that economic-role convergence has not paralleled convergence in the social meaning of job loss. • Female partner's job loss reduces the likelihood of entering parenthood. • Male partner's job loss reduces the probability of family expansion. • This negative effect persists net of household income at the time of job loss. • Couples with lower income before male job loss face greater second birth penalties.
The End of an Era: The Vanishing Negative Effect of Women's Employment on Fertility Anna Matysiak, Daniele Vignoli Population and Development Review, 2026 This paper examines whether women's employment in the 21st century remains a barrier to family formation, as it was in the 1980s and 1990s, or—similar to men's—it has become a prerequisite for childbearing. We address this question through a systematic quantitative review (meta‐analysis) of empirical studies conducted in Europe, North America, and Australia. We selected 94 studies published between 1990 and 2023 ( N = 572 effect sizes). Our analysis uncovers a fundamental shift in the relationship between women's employment and fertility. What was once a strongly negative association has become statistically insignificant in the 2000s and 2010s—and even turned positive in the Nordic countries, parts of Western Europe (France, Belgium, and the Netherlands), and Central and Eastern Europe. This shift is evident both among childless women and mothers and has occurred across all analyzed country clusters, except for the German/Southern European group, where the relationship has remained negative. These findings challenge longstanding assumptions about work–family trade‐offs and suggest a reconfiguration of the economic and social conditions underpinning fertility decisions in contemporary high‐income societies. The paper calls for a reconceptualization of the employment–fertility relationship and development of a new theoretical framework that better captures these evolving dynamics in contemporary high‐income societies.
Which indicator best measures cultural engagement? A comparative analysis Alessandro Gallo, Francesca Adele Giambona, Daniele Vignoli Socio Economic Planning Sciences, 2026 Culture plays a central role in society. It supports inclusion, identity, and civic participation, while also contributing to economic activity and political engagement. Therefore, using appropriate tools to measure Cultural Engagement (CE) is crucial. In this paper, a set of composite indicators to measure cultural participation is developed, starting from individual participation in a range of cultural activities. Traditional methods—such as weighted and unweighted averages and Principal Component Analysis (PCA)—and a different approach based on Item Response Theory (IRT) are compared. These methods are examined in terms of interpretability and key features, looking across Italian regions and population subgroups, with attention to economic resources, education and gender. The analysis relies on nine waves (2014–2022) of the Aspects of Daily Life survey by the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT). While classical methods tend to be more intuitive and easier to read, the IRT-based approach offers distinct advantages, especially when analyzing individual cultural activities. Overall, the IRT approach enriches a body of literature that has, so far, offered limited tools for measuring CE. • Some composite indicators are developed to measure cultural engagement. • Traditional approaches are compared with an Item Response Theory (IRT) method. • The analysis uses Italian data from 2014 to 2022 to compare alternative indicators. • The IRT measure provides advantages when analyzing individual cultural activities. • Regional and socio-economic disparities in cultural engagement are highlighted.
Frontiers of self-realisation. How (un)certainty and imaginaries shape fertility intentions in Italy and Norway Giacomo Bazzani, Lars Dommermuth, Trude Lappegard, Daniele Vignoli Acta Sociologica United Kingdom, 2026 The prevalence of uncertainty and post-materialist values appears to contribute to the emergence of low-fertility patterns or even the prevalence of childlessness. This article casts doubt on this linear explanation, which seems to remove children from personal plans and aspirations. Drawing on a survey encompassing both open and closed questions to 837 heterosexual respondents from Norway and Italy, this study investigates both the enabling and hindering factors that affect fertility intentions. Employing a qualitative-driven mixed-methods approach, the results confirm the significant roles of uncertainty and self-realisation in the childbearing decision-making process, with the former being more pronounced in Italy and the latter in Norway. Additionally, fertility intentions can be considered as enhancing narratives of the self, often existing ‘despite’ uncertainty. In line with the concept of family formation as a ‘bricolage process’, we find that children may represent an opportunity for self-realisation, portraying a new type of children imaginary as ‘choice, pleasure, and social anchor’.
Intergenerational transmission of home-leaving patterns Raffaele Guetto, Elia Moracci, Daniele Vignoli Journal of Demographic Economics, 2026 Exploiting intergenerationally linked data from the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe, we examine the association between the home-leaving ages of parents and those of their daughters and sons. We propose a framework in which intergenerational associations between nest-leaving patterns of successive generations might stem from three channels of transmission, and we rely on detailed information on three generations of individuals to establish the strength of each channel. We find that a 1-year increase in the age at which a parent left home is associated with children leaving the nest approximately 1 month later. We provide evidence supporting our claim that the bulk of this association is due to direct cultural transmission of home-leaving ages stemming from the inheritance of preferences on the optimal timing of life-course events, such as cohabitation, marriage, and parenthood.
Single Parents’ Subjective Well-being in Europe: A Multilevel Analysis Andrea Ballerini, Raffaele Guetto, Daniele Vignoli Comparative Population Studies, 2026 This study investigates how single parenthood is associated with subjective well-being across European countries, with a particular focus on financial satisfaction, social connectedness, and welfare policy. Moving beyond the traditional dichotomy between single and coupled parents, we introduce a four-category typology that distinguishes between parents who are single or in a couple, and whether they have experienced a divorce. Using multilevel data from the European Social Survey, we examine both individual-level and macro-level mediators/moderators of the relationship between family structure and life satisfaction. Results confirm that single parents report significantly lower subjective well-being compared to coupled parents. Financial satisfaction emerges as a key mediating mechanism, substantially reducing the well-being gap, although not eliminating it. Social connectedness plays a more consistent moderating role. At the macro level, generous and targeted welfare policies, particularly in childcare and parental leave, help narrow well-being disparities, but gaps persist even in the most supportive contexts. Our findings underscore the complex nature of disadvantage among single parents. They highlight the need for context-sensitive, targeted interventions that go beyond income support to address time poverty, caregiving strain, and structural exclusion.
Living Together, Loving Apart: Health, Sexuality and Relationships in Middle-Aged and Older Men in Europe Clotilde Sparano, Giammarco Alderotti, Giulia Rastrelli, Giovanni Corona, Leen Antonio, Felipe F. Casanueva, Aleksander Giwercman, Thang S. Han, Ilpo T. Huhtaniemi, Chiara Lucchi, Terence O'Neill, Jolanta Słowikowska‐Hilczer, Jos Tournoy, Dirk Vanderschueren, Frederick Wu, Daniele Vignoli, Mario Maggi Andrology, 2026 Background Over time, family structures have grown more complex, diversifying adult relationships. While research has compared marital, cohabiting and living apart together relationships based on quality and health, less is known about their sexual dynamics. Theoretical frameworks suggest that co‐resident relationships may integrate sexuality differently from living apart together unions, where physical separation can either strengthen or weaken sexual intimacy. This study addresses this gap by analysing sexual function and satisfaction among men in marital, cohabiting and living apart together relationships. Exploring the relationship between living apart together unions and sexual and hormonal aspects can enhance our understanding of the links between hormones and the social and relational dynamics of contemporary society. Methods We analysed cross‐sectional data from the European Male Ageing Study, a non‐interventional cohort study conducted in eight European countries from 2005 to 2008. The sample included 3259 men aged 40–79 years who reported their relationship status. Sexual function was evaluated using the validated European Male Ageing Study sexual function questionnaire. Hormonal, lifestyle and health indicators were also collected. Statistical analyses, including ANCOVA, were used to adjust for confounders such as age, education, lifestyle and comorbidities. Results Living apart together relationships were reported by 6.9% of the cohort, similar to the 7.0% in cohabiting relationships, while 86.0% were married. Living apart together men were younger, more educated, and had a higher prevalence of smoking compared to married men. Compared to those in co‐residential relationships, men in living apart together relationships showed higher levels of free testosterone, greater sexual desire and satisfaction, and increased frequency of sexual activity, morning erections and masturbation. Cohabiting men were in an intermediate position, with married men reporting the lowest sexual desire and activity. Conclusions Our findings align with previous research, suggesting that living apart together relationships are associated with higher levels of sexual function and satisfaction. However, this is observed without the broader benefits of co‐residence, such as emotional security, shared responsibilities and partner's health oversight. Further research is needed to clarify the interplay between relationship type, sexual and health well‐being.
The European Parenting Leave Policies (EPLP) dataset: Leave duration entitlements for 21 countries from 1970 to 2024 Sonja Spitzer, Adèle Lemoine, Zhanxiong Song, Claudia Reiter, Angela Greulich, Agneta Herlitz, Alžběta Bártová, Elisa Brini, Zuzana Dančíková, Dovilė Galdauskaitė, Libertad González, Evi Hatzivarnava-Kazassi, Helena Honkaniemi, Sol Pía Juárez, Rannveig Kaldager Hart, Ida Lykke Kristiansen, Anna Kurowska, Katre Pall, Barbara Pertold-Gebicka, Tatjana Rakar, Tapio Räsänen, Konstantina Rentzou, Pedro Romero Balsas, Eva-Maria Schmidt, Laurène Thil, Dora Tuda, Lili Vargha, Daniele Vignoli, Sander Wagner, Katharina Wrohlich Demographic Research, 2026 BACKGROUNDParenting leave policies shape how caregiving and paid work can be reconciled around the time of childbirth.They have important implications for fertility, employment, and gender equality.Still, there are limited quantitative cross-country data capturing longterm policy changes that impact how long parents can temporarily be away from work to care for their children, and how leave can be shared between them. OBJECTIVEThe European Parenting Leave Policies (EPLP) Dataset provides harmonised regulations on maternity, co-parent, paid parental, and job-protected leave across 21 European countries from 1970 to 2024.It focuses on policies that shape how long birth mothers and their co-parents can take leave. METHODSStatutory leave entitlements were compiled from national legal sources, official government publications, and secondary literature.We followed a consistent set of data collection rules to enable comparison across countries and over time.Because the dataset focuses on time away from the job, it considers only rights for employed parents.It includes 33 variables and also documents country-specific reform timelines.
Aging in aging societies: the transformation of life courses and how we study them Marco Albertini, Daniele Vignoli Journals of Gerontology Series B Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences, 2025 Objectives Population aging is reshaping life courses. This article examines how extended longevity and the collective experience of aging societies alter the timing, meaning, and structure of life course transitions. It explores how individuals adapt their behaviors, expectations, and intergenerational roles to these shifts, and how aging at the micro-level is embedded within macro-level demographic and institutional transformations. Methods Drawing on conceptual and empirical insights from the Age-It Research Program, alongside state-of-the-art gerontological and sociodemographic literature, the article adopts a life course perspective informed by the principles of timing and linked lives. Results Population aging transforms the life course in at least three fundamental ways. First, increasing longevity and improved health have opened a new stage of life after retirement. Second, delayed transitions in education, work, and family formation are emerging as adaptations to longer lives, though they generate tensions with unchanged biological limits to fertility and evolving intergenerational expectations. Third, family structures are becoming increasingly “beanpole”—longer but thinner—reshaping intergenerational solidarities and increasing the relevance of extended- and non-kin ties. Discussion The increase in longevity is not merely stretching life but fundamentally redefining it. Growing old in an aging society becomes both a new individual experience and a collective transformation that challenges the adequacy of traditional life course categories. The Age-It findings call for conceptual renewal to better capture new stages, shifting chronologies, and reconfigured solidarities. Population aging also reshapes the research agenda of gerontologists.
Climate change concerns and fertility intentions: first evidence from Italy Chiara Puglisi, Raya Muttarak, Daniele Vignoli Genus, 2025 The impact of climate change is being felt worldwide, with Europe experiencing the fastest rate of warming among all continents. Beyond socioeconomic consequences, climate change can potentially affect demographic outcomes, including fertility, in terms of both reproductive health and fertility behavior. However, to date, there is limited evidence on the relationship between climate change and fertility. With this paper, we intend to (1) expand the theoretical discussion on the role of uncertainty in childbearing decisions by moving beyond the common focus on economic uncertainty to explicitly consider the role of environmental uncertainty; (2) broaden the scholarly understanding of the relationship between climate change and fertility, which has mainly focused on objective measures of climate change, by investigating the role of climate change concerns; and (3) offer the first empirical evidence on the association between climate change concerns and fertility intentions for Italy using the 2016 Household Multipurpose Survey “Family and Social Subjects” (FSS) (N = 4408). Our results provide initial indications that environmental uncertainty may be linked to lower fertility intentions. Individuals who perceive climate change as a major issue or the biggest problem of the future tend to be less likely to report an intention to have a child. This pattern appears consistent across parity groups, and the findings remained stable net of sociodemographic characteristics and individuals’ positioning on the conservative–liberal spectrum. Overall, these findings contribute to the discussion on how uncertainties and pessimism may shape childbearing intentions.
Aging well in an aging society: Italy at the forefront of global aging and the Age-It Research Program Daniele Vignoli, Marco Albertini, Carlos Chiatti, Gianluca Aimaretti, Giovanna Boccuzzo, Vanna Boffo, Agar Brugiavini, Filippo Cavallo, Simone Cenci, Antonio Cherubini, Febo Cincotti, Fabrizio d’Adda di Fagagna, Carlo Ferrarese, Vincenzo Galasso, Elisabetta Galeotti, Andrea Graziani, Guido Iaccarino, Fabrizia Lattanzio, Claudio Lucifora, Mario Mezzanzanica, Giuseppe Passarino, Anna Paterno, Sabrina Prati, Raffaella I Rumiati, Marco Sandri, Cecilia Tomassini, Alexandra Torbica, Andrea Ungar, Alessandra Petrucci Journals of Gerontology Series B Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences, 2025
Data Resource Profile: The Age-It Family Demography Survey (Age-It FDS) Daniele Vignoli, Elisa Brini, Raffaele Guetto, Giammarco Alderotti, Andrea Ballerini, Marco Cozzani, Alessandro Gallo, Carlos Javier Gil-Hernández, Maria Francesca Morabito, Elena Pirani, Davide Soldati, Francesco Tata, Valentina Tocchioni International Journal of Population Data Science, 2023
Childbearing Behaviours of Employed Women in Italy and Poland Rethinking Gender Work and Care in A New Europe Theorising Markets and Societies in the Post Postsocialist Era, 2016
Job loss and births. A couple-level study of Norwegian plant closures R Tyagi, E Brini, D Vignoli Social Science Research 137, 103358 , 2026 2026
Data Resource Profile: The Age-It Family Demography Survey (Age-It FDS) D Vignoli, E Brini, R Guetto, G Alderotti, A Ballerini, M Cozzani, A Gallo, ... International Journal of Population Data Science 8 (6), 3411 , 2026 2026
Single parents’ subjective well-being in Europe: A multilevel analysis A Ballerini, R Guetto, D Vignoli Comparative Population Studies 51 , 2026 2026
The Broken Shield of European Palliative Care: Evidence from Synthetic Counterfactuals on Financial Toxicity and Informal Care P Grassi, E Paperi, C Seghieri, D Vignoli arXiv preprint arXiv:2604.18609 , 2026 2026
Living Together, Loving Apart: Health, Sexuality and Relationships in Middle‐Aged and Older Men in Europe C Sparano, G Alderotti, G Rastrelli, G Corona, L Antonio, FF Casanueva, ... Andrology , 2026 2026
Synthesizing the Counterfactual: A CTGAN-Augmented Causal Evaluation of Palliative Care on Spousal Depression P Grassi, R Molinari, C Seghieri, D Vignoli arXiv preprint arXiv:2603.26913 , 2026 2026
The end of an era: The vanishing negative effect of women's employment on fertility A Matysiak, D Vignoli Population and Development Review 52 (1), 220-235 , 2026 2026 Citations: 4
Polarization and Flexibility in Attitudes Toward Assisted Reproduction: A Vignette Study D Vignoli, V Tocchioni, E Lazzari, M Cozzani Econometrics Working Papers Archive , 2026 2026
Frontiers of self-realisation. How (un) certainty and imaginaries shape fertility intentions in Italy and Norway G Bazzani, L Dommermuth, T Lappegard, D Vignoli Acta Sociologica 69 (1), 29-49 , 2026 2026 Citations: 11
Women Reproductive Health in an Ageing Society and Private-Public Intervention S Landini, S Viciani, D Vignoli, ME Coccia, M Cozzani, E Giusti, N Pellini DIRITTO E SALUTE, 213-225 , 2026 2026
Sostenere le famiglie in una società longeva D Vignoli, E Brini, R Guetto VITA E PENSIERO, 63-66 , 2026 2026
Climate change narratives and first birth in the UK E Weychert, D Vignoli, A Matysiak, D Celińska-Kopczyńska Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw Working Papers , 2026 2026
Intergenerational transmission of home-leaving patterns R Guetto, E Moracci, D Vignoli Journal of Demographic Economics, 1-43 , 2026 2026
Environmental aspects of internal migration in Tanzania EU EU-FER, MR Testa, D Vignoli 2025
Aging in aging societies: the transformation of life courses and how we study them M Albertini, D Vignoli The Journals of Gerontology, Series B: Psychological Sciences and Social … , 2025 2025 Citations: 1
Aging well in an aging society: Italy at the forefront of global aging and the Age-It Research Program D Vignoli, M Albertini, C Chiatti, G Aimaretti, G Boccuzzo, V Boffo, ... The Journals of Gerontology, Series B: Psychological Sciences and Social … , 2025 2025 Citations: 7
Participatory approach, dissemination, and implementation of research on aging: the Age-It experience C Chiatti, M Alberio, G Lamura, N Nobani, D Vignoli The Journals of Gerontology, Series B: Psychological Sciences and Social … , 2025 2025 Citations: 1
Positive demography: Changing the perspective on population aging from the Age-It Research Program G Alderotti, M Cozzani, G De Santis, M Mezzanzanica, R Miglio, ... The Journals of Gerontology, Series B: Psychological Sciences and Social … , 2025 2025 Citations: 8
Climate change concerns and fertility intentions: first evidence from Italy C Puglisi, R Muttarak, D Vignoli Genus 81 (1), 1-23 , 2025 2025 Citations: 14
The European Parenting Leave Policies (EPLP) Dataset S Spitzer, A Lemoine, Z Song, C Reiter, A Greulich, A Herlitz, A Bártová, ... 2025
MOST CITED SCHOLAR PUBLICATIONS
Fertility and Women’s Employment: A Meta-analysis A Matysiak, D Vignoli European Journal of Population/Revue européenne de Démographie 24, 363-384 , 2008 2008 Citations: 415
The Great Recession and fertility in Europe: A sub-national analysis A Matysiak, T Sobotka, D Vignoli European Journal of Population , 2020 2020 Citations: 376
A reflection on economic uncertainty and fertility in Europe: The narrative framework D Vignoli, R Guetto, G Bazzani, E Pirani, A Minello Genus 76 (1), 28 , 2020 2020 Citations: 334
Gender Equality and Fertility: Which Equality Matters? G Neyer, T Lappegård, D Vignoli European Journal of Population/Revue européenne de Démographie 29, 245-272 , 2013 2013 Citations: 305
Whose job instability affects the likelihood of becoming a parent in Italy? A tale of two partners D Vignoli, S Drefahl, G De Santis Demographic Research 26, 41-62 , 2012 2012 Citations: 296
Employment instability and fertility in Europe: A meta-analysis G Alderotti, D Vignoli, M Baccini, A Matysiak Demography 58 (3), 871-900 , 2021 2021 Citations: 284
Uncertainty and narratives of the future: A theoretical framework for contemporary fertility D Vignoli, G Bazzani, R Guetto, A Minello, E Pirani Analyzing contemporary fertility, 25-47 , 2020 2020 Citations: 262
Towards a new understanding of cohabitation: Insights from focus group research across Europe and Australia B Perelli-Harris, M Mynarska, A Berrington, C Berghammer, A Evans, ... Demographic research 31, 1043-1078 , 2014 2014 Citations: 234
The educational gradient in marital disruption: A meta-analysis of European research findings A Matysiak, M Styrc, D Vignoli Population Studies 68 (2), 197-215 , 2014 2014 Citations: 232
Fertility intentions and obstacles to their realization in France and Italy A Régnier-Loilier, D Vignoli Population 66 (2), 361-389 , 2011 2011 Citations: 223
A home to plan the first child? Fertility intentions and housing conditions in Italy D Vignoli, F Rinesi, E Mussino Population, Space and Place 19 (1), 60-71 , 2013 2013 Citations: 209
Diverse paths into childlessness over the life course M Mynarska, A Matysiak, A Rybińska, V Tocchioni, D Vignoli Advances in life course research 25, 35-48 , 2015 2015 Citations: 172
Fertility intentions and outcomes: Implementing the theory of planned behavior with graphical models L Mencarini, D Vignoli, A Gottard Advances in life course research 23, 14-28 , 2015 2015 Citations: 157
The impact of job uncertainty on first-birth postponement D Vignoli, V Tocchioni, A Mattei Advances in Life Course Research 45, 100308 , 2020 2020 Citations: 156
Persistent joblessness and fertility intentions A Busetta, D Mendola, D Vignoli Demographic Research 40, 185-218 , 2019 2019 Citations: 153
Partners’ educational pairings and fertility across Europe N Nitsche, A Matysiak, J Van Bavel, D Vignoli Demography 55 (4), 1195-1232 , 2018 2018 Citations: 147
Family life and work: Second European quality of life survey IE Kotowska, A Matysiak, M Styrc, A Pailhé, A Solaz, D Vignoli Dublin: European Foundation for The Improvement of Living and Working Conditions , 2010 2010 Citations: 143
Diverse effects of women’s employment on fertility: Insights from Italy and Poland A Matysiak, D Vignoli European Journal of Population/Revue européenne de Démographie 29, 273-302 , 2013 2013 Citations: 140
Spreading uncertainty, shrinking birth rates: A natural experiment for Italy CL Comolli, D Vignoli European Sociological Review 37 (4), 555-570 , 2021 2021 Citations: 130
Rising marital disruption in Italy and its correlates D Vignoli, I Ferro Demographic Research 20 (4), 11-36 , 2009 2009 Citations: 130
