General Economics, Econometrics and Finance, Economics, Econometrics and Finance
7
Scopus Publications
Scopus Publications
Dynamic Panel Data Analysis of Intra-industry Trade in Services in South Asia Arnob Paul, Sushanta Kumar Nayak Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, 2026 The services sector plays a crucial role in shaping a country’s economy, enhancing efficiency across industries. Essential services such as transport, financial, and telecommunications services enable the movement of people, goods, and capital internationally. The sector’s share reached 65.7% of the gross domestic product (GDP) globally in 2020, with world trade in services increasing from 6.0% to 13.6% of GDP between 1990 and 2019. This growth has also led to a significant increase in employment, with 51% of the global workforce now in services, 17% up since 1991. This article examines the growing significance of the services sector in trade, employment, and economic growth, focusing on intra-industry trade (IIT) among South Asian nations. Using data from the Trade in Services database of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and World Development Indicators (WDI), the study finds that significant sectoral shifts in IIT, particularly in Afghanistan and India, highlight dynamic changes in trade profiles. Further, trade imbalances (TRIMs) and differences in income per capita are found to have a negative impact on the intensity of IIT, while trade orientation (TO) positively impacts it, suggesting that more trade-oriented nations have higher IIT. The findings demonstrate the importance of balanced trade relations and suggest that historical trade conditions continue to influence trade within the industry. JEL Classification C23, F14, F15
Beyond goods: trends and determinants of South Asia’s comparative advantage in services trade Arnob Paul, Sushanta Kumar Nayak Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, 2026 Purpose This study aims to examine South Asia’s revealed comparative advantage (RCA) in services trade from 2010 to 2023, analysing both static and dynamic patterns. It maps sectoral specialisation across eight economies and identifies structural and policy factors driving competitiveness. By distinguishing persistent advantages from emerging opportunities, the study addresses gaps in understanding the region’s evolving role in global services trade. Design/methodology/approach Using OECD-WTO BaTIS data, the RCA and Dynamic RCA indices are calculated for 12 service sectors grouped into three categories. A differenced panel two-way GMM framework evaluates determinants, such as capital formation, education, human capital, digital readiness, institutional quality and governance, controlling for country-specific heterogeneity and time dynamics. Findings Results reveal structural diversity and uneven competitiveness: India dominates ICT and business services despite declining RCA intensity, while Sri Lanka diversifies and Afghanistan and Bangladesh lose earlier advantages. Determinants vary by service category, physical infrastructure drives traditional services, digital innovation sustains knowledge-intensive sectors and institutional quality anchors government-related services. Persistent RCA indicates cumulative capabilities, with structural rather than price factors shaping competitiveness. Originality/value The study integrates static and dynamic RCA analysis with econometric evidence, providing a nuanced understanding of South Asia’s service trade competitiveness. It highlights sector-specific drivers, resilience of established ecosystems and shifts towards new service specialisations, offering policy-relevant insights for fostering sustainable growth beyond traditional comparative advantages.
Inclusive Growth or Illusion? Gender Inequity in India’s Expanding Service Sector Arnob Paul, Kanchan Devi Millennial Asia, 2026 India’s post-liberalization growth has been led by the service sector, now the largest contributor to the gross domestic product. However, its employment potential remains unevenly realized, especially for women who are concentrated in informal, low-paying rural jobs. This study examines the gendered patterns of sectoral employment from 2017–2018 to 2022–2023, using National Sample Survey Office (NSSO), Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) and International Labour Organization data. Employing ISIC Rev. 4 for classification, it applies descriptive statistics and three indices, the Employment–Income Gap Index, the Labour Mobility Index and the Relative Absorption Index, to analyse sectoral shifts and gender disparities. Findings reveal persistent gender gaps, rural–urban divides and limited female mobility, with high employment–income gaps in agriculture and weak labour absorption in services. India’s service-led growth has not delivered inclusive employment outcomes. Addressing structural imbalances through gender-responsive skilling, safer workspaces and rural service-sector expansion is critical for enabling equitable labour transitions and harnessing the full potential of the service sector for inclusive development.
Rural-Urban Gaps in Elderly E-Health Utilisation in the Digital Age: Insights from Assam Arnob Paul, Kanchan Devi, Sushanta Kumar Nayak Advances in Gerontology, 2025 Abstract This study investigates rural-urban disparities in digital healthcare utilisation among elderly populations in Assam, with a focus on the mediating role of digital literacy. Primary survey data from 400 respondents aged 60 and above were used to construct a Digital Literacy Index (DLI) and a Digital Healthcare Utilisation Index (DHUI) via Principal Component Analysis. Multiple regression analysis identified age, education, income, living arrangements, and digital literacy as significant determinants, with rural residence linked to lower utilisation odds. The Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition revealed a DHUI gap of 2.946 units, of which 73% was explained by differences in characteristics, primarily digital literacy, education, and income. Digital literacy alone accounted for over one-third of the explained gap, while the unexplained component pointed to infrastructural, contextual, and socio-cultural barriers. Findings show that low education, economic constraints, and limited digital skills disproportionately hinder rural elderly from accessing e-health services despite greater healthcare needs. The study indicates digital literacy as the most actionable factor, advocating tailored, age-sensitive training, simplified interfaces, and social support mechanisms. Addressing these disparities is essential to prevent digital health initiatives from exacerbating inequalities and to ensure equitable inclusion of elderly populations in India’s evolving digital health ecosystem.
From informality to insecurity: a beta regression analysis of employment vulnerability Kanchan Devi, Arnob Paul International Journal of Sociology and Social Policy, 2025 Purpose Employment vulnerability is a defining characteristic of the informal labour market in Assam (a state of India), which has witnessed a steady rise in informal employment between 1999–2000 and 2011–12. Despite their substantial contribution to the state's economy, informal workers face precarious working conditions, irregular incomes, and limited or no social security. This study aims to measure and analyse the extent of employment vulnerability among informal workers in Assam, with attention to variations across demographic and occupational groups. Design/methodology/approach The analysis is based on primary data collected from 600 respondents across selected districts of Assam, of whom approximately 23% are women. A Total Employment Vulnerability (TEV) Index is constructed to capture multidimensional aspects of vulnerability, calculated as the average of four component indices representing different dimensions of employment insecurity. The TEV ranges from 0 (no vulnerability) to 1 (high vulnerability). Statistical techniques, including ANOVA and Chi-Square tests, are employed to examine differences in vulnerability by district, gender, education level, area of residence, and sector of employment. Findings The results indicate significant disparities in employment vulnerability across districts and demographic categories. Women, workers with lower educational attainment, rural residents, and those engaged in certain informal sectors exhibit notably higher vulnerability scores. The findings indicate the structural nature of insecurity within Assam's informal labour market and point to the intersection of socio-economic and geographic factors in shaping workers' risks. Originality/value This study offers one of the first empirical applications of a composite TEV Index to assess multidimensional employment vulnerability in Assam's informal economy using primary field survey data. By integrating district-level, gender-based, and sector-specific analyses, it provides actionable insights for designing targeted, region-specific, and gender-responsive policy interventions to enhance the security and well-being of informal workers.
Analysing Intra-industry Trade and Revealed Comparative Advantage in Services: A Study of India’s Services Sector Arnob Paul, Sushanta Kumar Nayak Indian Economic Journal, 2025 Over the past two decades, the services sector has gained increasing prominence in the global economy, both in terms of its contribution to gross domestic product (GDP) and international trade. Following the World Trade Organization (WTO)’s General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) in 1994, global services exports have expanded significantly—from $2,558.34 billion in 2005 to $6,217.45 billion in 2019—reflecting a growth rate of over 143%, far outpacing the 81% growth in goods exports over the same period. In this context, the present study examines India’s performance in services exports through three key dimensions: (a) the trend and composition of services exports from 2002 to 2021, (b) the intensity of intra-industry trade (IIT) in services, and (c) India’s revealed comparative advantage (RCA) in services trade between 2005 and 2020. To analyse trends and structural changes, the study employs annual and compound growth rates along with Spearman’s rank correlation to assess shifts in the composition of services exports. The Balassa index is used to estimate India’s RCA across service categories. The findings indicate that while India has experienced robust growth in services exports—with an increasing share in GDP and total trade—the composition of these exports has remained largely stable over time. The average IIT index stands at 0.61, suggesting moderately high IIT, particularly in construction and financial services. Furthermore, India exhibits strong comparative advantages in telecommunications, computer and information services and other business services. The analysis is based on secondary data sourced from the WTO trade in services database and the International Trade Centre (ITC) Trade Map, drawing primarily on International Monetary Fund (IMF) statistics from 2001 to 2021. JEL Codes: F10, F13, F19
Infant Mortality among the Tea Garden Workers in Upper Assam: Insights from a Field Survey Kanchan Devi, Vandana Upadhyay, Arnob Paul Indian Economic Journal, 2024 Infant mortality rate is an important indicator that reflects not only the health status of the infant but also the well-being of society as a whole. The north-eastern state of Assam is one of the states having the highest number of maternal and infant deaths within the country. For the first time, infant mortality in Assam registered a decline to 31.9 compared to the national average of 35.2 per 1,000 live births (NFHS-5). Though the overall rank of the state in terms of infant mortality has improved (from the 34th position to the 25th position), it is not enough and is not evenly distributed across the communities within the state. Human rights violations are particularly prominent among the tea garden workers of Assam and are mostly seen against the Adivasi children and woman, which is reflected by high maternal and infant deaths. The study aims to determine the factors responsible for infant mortality among tea garden workers by using primary data collected from 300 women workers across tea gardens in the Sonitpur and Tinsukia districts of Upper Assam. The binary logistic regression method is used for the analysis. It was observed that among the six probable factors, namely educational qualifications of the mother, marriage age of the mother, daily working hours, daily wage as tea garden labour, total number of births and the source of drinking water, the following three factors—namely the total number of births, age at marriage and the source of drinking water—are found to be the significant determinants of infant mortality among the tea garden labourers of Assam. JEL Codes: I12, I15
