Shrinking Cities in Belarus. Spatial Differentiation of Demographic Development , Ekaterina ANTIPOVA, Liliya SUSHKEVICH, , Anton TSITOU, and Journal of Settlements and Spatial Planning, 2025 Global economic shifts, demographic transition, political, social, and environmental changes, as well as local crises, have led to the emergence of shrinking cities around the world. The present article assesses the dynamics and scale of demographic shrinkage of Belarusian cities for three intercensal periods: 1989–1999, 1999–2009, 2009–2019. The geographical study of shrinking cities in Belarus was carried out using the conceptual foundations of the shaping factors and criteria for identifying shrinking cities, theoretical approaches to assess demographic processes, and a set of methods (mathematical and statistical, demographic trajectories, grouping, classification matrices, balance, geographical systematization, cartographic and GIS-technologies). The aim of the study was to evaluate the trends of dynamics, scale and differentiation of demographic development of shrinking cities by regions in Belarus, over the period of 1989–2019. Based on international experience, the criteria of shrinking cities applied to the territory of Belarus were defined for the first time, thus becoming a subject of scientific research novelty. The main criteria of demographic contraction of the Belarusian cities are: population decrease over the period between 1989 and 2019, negative annual growth of population, and regressive demographic balance. The shrinking cities of Belarus are heterogeneous in demographic development and divided into three types: 1) outpacing shrinkage (since 1989); 2) catching-up shrinkage (from 1999–2009); 3) reversible demographic trend, with the dominance of the cities in the second category (68%). The dominance of shrinking cities in Belarus is typical for three regions, namely Viciebsk, Mahilioŭ and Homieĺ, which reflects the general trend of depopulation in the eastern and northeastern regions of the country. Establishing a typology of shrinking cities in Belarus represents a scientific innovation and provides a corresponding basis for a differentiated approach to setting promising strategies for their future development.
Spatial and Temporal Shifts in the Demographic Development of China at the End of the 20th and the Beginning of the 21st Centuries Ekaterina ANTIPOVA, Chen LI Journal of Settlements and Spatial Planning, 2021 The article provides an economic and geographical analysis of the demographic processes in China, considering a set of natural and geographic factors, selected to reflect the influence of the state policy of family planning, as well as the policy for the development of separate regions in the period under study. The methodology included the use of geoinformation technologies, classification method and geographical systematization. Based on the identified spatial differences at the level of provinces, radical and previously absent spatial shifts in the demographic processes in China were established for the first time. They consist in the formation of positive and negative dynamics zones, as well as natural increase and natural decline zones. The demographic balance, for the first time calculated for the provinces of China, for 2010 and 2019, made it possible to indicate the dominance of provinces of a progressive type (53.0%) and a zone of provinces of a regressive type (8.8%). The established trend proves not only a differentiation, but also a spatial polarization at the national level and acts as a phenomenon of modern demographic development in China, in the 21st century. The results of the geographical systematization of the demographic space has practical significance as it provides the opportunity to use this methodology at the microgeographic level in other territories and serves as a scientific justification for the development of the directions of China’s regional demographic policy.
The dynamics of the demographic space of the Republic of Belarus in XXI century: Similarities and differences between urban and rural population areas and E.A. Antipova Ukrainian Geographical Journal, 2020 Цель исследования - установление пространственно-временных закономерностей в динамике численности и характере естественного движения городского и сельского населения на трех уровнях территориальной иерархии Республики Беларусь. С использованием сравнительно-географического, статистико-математического методов и ГИС-технологий проведен анализ динамики демографического пространства страны за 1999 – 2018 гг. Определена поляризация трендов динамики численности и дифференциация – в характере естественного движения городского и сельского населения. На уровне 118 административных районов и 115 городов Беларуси разработана типология городов и сельских \nрайонов по характеру демографического баланса. Установлено преобладание регрессивного типа демографического баланса в целом при различиях между городской и сельской местностью. Для городов характерны паритетные позиции контрастно-факторного и регрессивного типов, для сельской местности – преобладание регрессивного типа. Современный демографический баланс городов и сельской местности Беларуси свидетельствует о формировании трех зон – центральной, полупериферийной и периферийной с паритетными позициями последних двух в городах и преобладании периферийности – в селе. Проведенный анализ свидетельствует об усилении дифференциации демографического пространства Беларуси и его периферизации. Доказанная дифференциация и поляризация демографического пространства Беларуси и тренд его периферизации 1999 – 2018 гг. являются основанием для выработки регионально \nдифференцированных направлений демографической безопасности и совершенствования административно-территориального устройства страны.
The single-industry towns of Belarus: Differences in demographic and economic development E. A. Antipova, A. N. Titov Journal of Settlements and Spatial Planning, 2016 In this article we carried out an economic geographical analysis of socio-demographic and economic factors for the development ofsingle-industry towns in Belarus over the period of 2000-2013. We pinpointed the role of the single-industry towns of Belarus in thesystem of settlement, analysed some of their most significant features, namely: functional typology, structure by population size andtype of economic activity. Therefore, we introduced new typologies of single-industry towns in accordance with the dominant type ofeconomic activity and predominance of type of developed food industry. In the context of the current modern economic situation of thekey single-industry towns in Belarus, we have detected the centre-periphery polarization and also independent single-industry urbanagglomerations, whereas the peripheral single-industry towns were found dominant, which proves their issues in the context of moderndevelopment. (PDF) The single-industry towns of Belarus: Differences in demographic and economic development.
Fertility and family policies in central and eastern europe after 1990 Tomáš Frejka, Stuart Gietel‐Basten Comparative Population Studies, 2016 This paper examines fertility and family policies in 15 Central and East European (CEE) countries to establish firstly, likely directions of cohort fertility trends for the coming decade; and secondly, to provide an overview and analysis of family policies in CEE countries, and to assess their impact on cohort fertility trends. Demographic analysis suggests that the cohort fertility decline of the 1960s cohorts is likely to continue at least among the 1970s birth cohorts; stagnation cannot be ruled out. Births that were postponed by women born in the 1970s were not being replaced in sufficient numbers for cohort fertility to increase in the foreseeable future, and shares of low parity women (childless and one child) were larger than shares of high parity women among the late 1960s cohorts than in older cohorts. Also, childbearing postponement which started in the 1990s is reflected in dramatic changes of childbearing age patterns. As period fertility rates have been increasing in the late 2000s throughout the region an impression of a fertility recovery has been created, however the findings of this project indicate that no such widespread childbearing recovery is underway. For the first time ever an overview and analysis of CEE family policies is conceptualized in this paper. It demonstrates that fertility trends and family policies are a matter of serious concern throughout the region. The following family policy types have been identified: comprehensive family policy model; pro-natalist policies model; temporary male bread-winner model; and conventional family policies model. The majority of family policies in CEE countries suffer from a variety of shortcomings that impede them from generating enhanced family welfare and from providing conditions for cohort fertility to increase. The likely further decline of cohort fertility, or its stagnation, may entail long-term demographic as well as other societal consequences, such as continuous declines in total population numbers, changes in age structures, as well as implications for health and social security costs.
Rural settlement pattern in Belarus Ekaterina AntipovaCDFMR Bulletin of Geography, 2013 The article presents the analysis of the Belarusian rural settlement system over the period of the years 1959‒2009. Spatial and temporal shifts in the rural population distribution and settlement structure were found, and types of the Belarusian rural settlement pattern were developed. Distribution features and demographic development of a new form of the Belarusian rural communities - agrotowns - were discovered
Demographic processes in rural areas of Belarus: Geographical structure and spatial dynamics Ekaterina Antipova, Liudmila Fakeyeva Bulletin of Geography, 2012 Demographic processes in rural areas of Belarus: geographical structure and spatial dynamics The study presents the spatiotemporal regularities and shifts in geo-demographic development of rural areas of Belarus at the multiscale level. Trends in rural population size dynamics for the period of 1959-2009 are detected and characterised. In accordance with the trends in the dynamics of the rural population of Belarus spatial regularities were identified. The geo-demographic territory of Belarus is typified on character of demographic dynamics and natural movement processes of rural population. We have identified three types of districts by the nature of the rural population dynamics for the period of 1970-2009: stable, growing and shrinking; and three types of natural population movement dynamics for the same period in accordance with spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the rural depopulation.
GIS mapping in the geodemographic studies (Case study of the Republic of Belarus) Hungarian Geographical Bulletin, 2012
